***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2020.-03.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 23.3 23.9 20.4 1.9 73.9 66.1 20.5 21.6 23.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 23.5 24.1 20.4 2.0 76.3 67.8 20.4 21.8 23.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 23.1 24.1 20.7 1.9 73.3 66.2 20.2 21.4 23.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 14.6 16.1 17.9 1.4 67.7 61.9 12.6 14.0 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 21.7 23.4 18.4 1.3 64.8 60.7 20.0 21.1 23.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 20.8 21.0 16.1 1.0 63.8 57.3 18.0 20.2 21.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 23.0 23.9 20.2 1.9 74.9 67.3 19.9 21.0 23.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 9.5 10.0 16.7 1.1 63.9 58.8 6.9 8.9 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 21.4 22.8 18.9 1.5 66.4 62.1 19.4 20.7 22.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 21.4 22.1 17.6 1.4 65.4 60.7 19.7 20.9 22.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 21.9 22.3 18.2 1.1 63.7 59.0 19.5 21.3 22.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 20.8 21.3 17.7 1.0 64.1 58.1 18.6 20.1 21.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 19.6 22.2 16.8 0.9 63.5 56.7 19.4 21.3 22.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 23.0 23.3 18.9 1.8 70.3 65.4 20.1 21.2 22.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 21.9 23.2 19.0 1.6 70.6 63.5 19.9 21.5 23.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 22.5 22.9 17.6 1.1 63.7 58.2 19.7 22.0 23.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 22.9 23.5 20.1 2.0 74.6 67.7 19.5 21.1 22.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 20.8 22.2 17.2 1.5 65.6 61.6 18.9 20.1 22.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 22.9 23.7 20.5 2.0 76.2 67.7 19.7 21.4 23.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 15.9 16.4 14.4 1.2 64.7 59.8 13.3 15.2 16.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 21.9 23.4 19.8 1.6 67.9 63.3 19.8 21.3 23.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 23.3 23.8 20.1 2.1 74.4 68.6 20.4 21.3 23.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 23.2 24.0 20.6 2.0 75.3 67.0 20.1 21.4 23.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 22.6 22.9 18.8 1.8 69.1 64.3 19.5 20.8 22.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 22.0 23.3 18.6 1.6 70.1 64.1 20.1 21.5 23.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 20.6 21.3 16.7 0.9 62.7 57.1 18.4 20.1 21.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 22.8 23.5 19.6 1.8 73.3 65.7 19.7 21.0 23.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 22.0 23.0 18.2 1.4 67.5 61.4 19.9 21.6 22.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 15.7 16.9 16.2 1.4 64.1 60.8 13.4 15.0 16.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 23.1 23.8 20.4 2.0 76.0 67.7 19.5 21.7 23.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------