***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2020.-19.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 17.7 17.9 18.2 2.0 70.6 66.2 15.5 16.3 17.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 17.6 17.9 18.0 1.8 70.8 65.0 14.8 16.6 17.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 17.5 17.9 18.3 1.8 68.8 64.1 15.3 16.2 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 9.5 10.1 15.1 1.6 67.3 63.2 8.3 9.3 10.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 17.2 17.7 16.3 1.5 64.9 61.7 15.7 17.0 17.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 15.7 16.2 14.5 1.6 64.7 62.0 14.2 15.4 16.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 17.5 17.7 17.8 1.7 70.5 64.3 14.8 16.2 17.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 5.3 5.2 14.6 1.4 61.6 60.5 3.0 5.1 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 16.9 17.2 17.1 1.6 64.9 62.2 15.0 16.7 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 16.6 17.2 15.5 1.5 62.9 61.2 15.4 16.3 17.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 17.1 17.4 16.5 1.4 63.6 60.7 15.1 16.8 17.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 15.9 16.8 15.6 1.4 63.1 60.8 14.2 15.6 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 17.0 17.4 15.7 1.2 63.2 59.8 15.1 16.6 17.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 17.7 17.3 16.9 1.6 68.4 62.5 15.0 16.6 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 17.5 17.7 17.0 1.7 69.5 64.9 15.7 16.7 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 17.2 17.6 16.0 1.4 64.0 61.0 15.8 16.8 17.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 16.9 17.4 17.5 1.7 69.4 64.5 14.1 15.7 17.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 16.2 17.0 14.9 1.5 62.7 60.8 14.6 15.8 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 17.1 17.6 18.1 1.8 70.4 64.5 14.8 15.9 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 11.0 11.8 12.6 1.4 61.2 60.4 8.7 10.7 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 17.5 17.5 17.8 1.6 66.0 62.7 15.0 16.7 17.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 17.3 17.5 17.7 1.8 70.4 64.9 14.9 16.2 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 17.6 17.7 18.1 1.7 70.3 63.4 15.0 16.4 17.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 17.3 17.4 16.8 1.6 66.7 62.0 15.1 15.9 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 17.3 17.6 16.7 1.7 68.3 64.3 15.7 16.4 17.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 16.3 16.8 14.6 1.2 62.1 59.9 14.6 15.9 16.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 17.4 17.7 17.5 1.8 69.4 65.3 15.1 16.4 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 17.4 17.3 15.9 1.6 67.1 63.5 15.4 16.6 17.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 10.8 11.8 14.1 1.4 61.2 59.9 9.0 10.4 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 17.5 17.7 18.1 1.8 71.0 65.1 14.9 16.1 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------