***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2020.-12.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 5 95 100 19.5 20.1 18.1 3.7 85.5 83.8 14.4 16.6 18.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 5 95 100 19.8 20.3 18.2 3.7 84.1 83.1 15.0 16.6 18.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 6 94 100 20.0 20.7 17.9 3.4 81.5 80.4 14.7 17.2 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 17 83 100 13.5 14.1 13.8 2.6 78.4 76.5 7.1 10.5 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 17 83 100 20.4 20.9 15.4 2.8 76.6 76.4 14.9 17.7 20.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 19.6 18.8 12.6 1.9 68.9 68.2 14.3 16.8 18.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 5 95 100 19.0 19.6 18.0 3.7 84.1 83.1 14.7 16.8 18.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 7.6 7.7 13.3 2.5 74.0 73.1 3.0 5.5 7.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 15 85 100 19.6 20.1 16.5 2.9 78.4 77.2 14.9 16.9 19.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 19.6 20.0 14.5 2.7 76.0 74.4 14.9 17.8 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 19.8 20.1 15.5 2.4 72.9 72.9 15.2 17.4 19.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 19.3 19.3 14.2 2.4 72.5 72.8 14.2 17.0 19.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 20.0 20.7 15.0 2.3 71.9 72.1 15.3 17.3 20.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 4 96 100 20.1 20.8 17.1 3.6 82.0 80.8 14.6 16.8 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 20.0 20.5 16.5 2.5 79.4 77.0 15.8 17.8 19.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 20.3 20.7 14.8 2.3 72.2 72.3 15.5 18.0 20.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 5 95 100 18.3 19.0 17.9 3.8 83.9 83.6 14.2 16.1 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 12 88 100 19.2 19.6 14.1 3.1 77.4 76.1 14.4 16.7 18.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 5 95 100 19.5 20.2 18.1 3.6 83.1 82.0 14.5 16.5 18.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 11 89 100 15.0 15.5 12.2 3.3 79.7 78.5 9.4 12.3 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 11 89 100 19.9 20.5 17.4 3.1 79.7 78.4 15.2 17.0 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 5 95 100 19.4 20.3 18.0 3.8 84.6 83.9 14.7 16.3 17.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 5 95 100 20.1 20.5 18.0 3.4 81.6 80.4 14.7 16.5 18.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 8 92 100 19.8 20.2 16.6 3.3 79.5 78.2 14.4 16.8 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 9 91 100 19.9 21.2 16.6 3.3 83.3 81.0 15.2 17.2 18.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 19.5 20.1 13.6 2.6 75.0 74.8 14.8 16.8 19.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 6 94 100 19.5 21.0 17.6 3.7 86.0 83.6 15.0 17.1 18.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 20.3 20.9 14.6 2.3 76.1 74.0 15.9 17.6 19.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 8 92 100 15.0 15.6 13.8 3.4 79.5 78.1 9.5 12.1 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 5 95 100 19.2 20.1 18.2 3.7 84.3 83.1 14.6 16.7 18.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------