***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2020.-03.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 11.1 11.0 10.2 1.0 70.4 61.0 8.9 9.8 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 10.8 11.0 9.9 1.1 68.7 62.9 7.9 9.6 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 12.3 12.5 10.2 1.0 70.7 62.2 9.8 10.9 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 6.1 6.3 7.4 0.8 64.9 60.3 4.5 5.6 6.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 9.2 8.8 7.5 0.8 65.1 60.4 6.4 8.1 8.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 6.2 6.7 5.5 0.7 63.2 59.7 5.0 5.8 7.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 10.7 11.0 10.0 1.1 69.9 63.5 7.7 9.1 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 2.6 2.0 5.5 0.8 65.5 61.5 0.5 1.1 2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 9.7 9.2 7.8 0.8 66.0 61.0 7.0 8.5 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 9.5 9.7 6.3 0.8 66.3 61.6 7.2 8.2 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 9.0 8.7 6.9 0.7 64.2 60.7 6.6 7.8 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 7.0 6.7 6.2 0.7 63.1 60.5 5.1 5.9 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 7.7 7.9 5.5 0.6 58.7 57.4 6.1 7.4 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 10.2 10.1 7.8 0.9 67.8 62.0 7.6 8.9 10.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 9.7 9.8 8.6 0.9 68.8 61.1 8.3 8.9 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 9.4 9.3 6.3 0.6 61.1 58.6 8.2 9.0 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 10.6 10.3 9.7 1.1 68.7 63.5 9.0 9.3 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 7.6 6.8 5.5 0.8 66.3 62.4 5.0 6.1 6.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 10.4 10.7 9.9 1.0 68.2 62.4 8.0 9.0 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 4.4 3.9 3.5 0.8 62.6 61.5 2.0 3.1 4.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 9.8 9.7 9.2 0.8 69.2 60.8 7.3 8.6 9.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 9.8 9.9 9.5 1.1 68.3 63.8 7.8 8.5 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 10.1 9.8 9.6 0.9 67.8 62.2 7.7 8.7 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 9.6 9.1 7.5 0.9 68.8 63.0 7.3 8.1 9.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 9.8 10.1 8.7 0.8 65.9 60.0 6.9 9.3 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 7.4 7.6 5.2 0.5 61.0 57.7 6.2 7.0 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 11.8 12.0 9.6 1.0 67.7 60.8 6.8 10.5 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 8.3 7.8 7.7 0.8 66.3 60.6 5.9 7.2 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 7.1 6.3 5.0 0.9 65.9 62.6 4.8 5.7 6.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 11.0 11.2 10.1 1.1 70.2 62.6 7.9 9.7 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------