***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2020.-12.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 4.8 4.8 4.8 -0.9 30.6 33.8 4.9 5.7 7.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 5.9 5.0 4.8 -0.5 36.9 38.3 4.9 5.5 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 8.3 6.6 5.1 -0.6 35.1 36.4 6.4 7.7 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 2.5 0.6 2.4 -0.6 34.9 37.4 0.6 1.6 3.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 3.3 3.3 2.9 -1.1 28.2 31.0 3.6 5.0 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 80 20 0 100 1.9 1.9 0.0 -1.3 20.2 25.1 2.8 4.2 4.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 6.1 5.2 4.7 -0.6 35.6 37.2 5.1 5.6 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 -3.2 -2.8 0.4 -0.9 27.4 29.6 -2.4 -1.8 -0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 86 14 0 100 3.4 3.2 2.5 -1.7 18.3 21.5 4.4 5.4 6.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 4.1 4.2 1.2 -1.2 25.6 28.0 4.5 5.9 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 78 22 0 100 3.5 3.8 2.0 -1.6 22.5 23.4 4.3 5.6 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 79 21 0 100 2.0 1.7 1.2 -1.3 23.2 25.8 3.1 4.5 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 96 4 0 100 2.5 2.3 0.2 -2.5 13.6 15.3 4.3 5.1 5.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 83 17 0 100 4.4 4.5 2.2 -1.6 20.4 23.3 5.1 6.0 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 91 9 0 100 4.8 4.8 2.7 -2.0 16.3 18.3 5.2 5.8 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 80 20 0 100 4.0 3.6 1.4 -1.7 18.1 22.6 5.3 6.1 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 6.4 5.3 4.6 -0.4 39.2 40.0 4.7 6.1 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 2.4 2.4 0.8 -0.9 28.5 31.2 2.7 3.8 4.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 6.0 5.1 4.9 -0.4 38.5 40.1 4.5 5.6 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 -0.3 0.3 -0.7 -0.6 33.0 34.6 0.3 0.8 1.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 83 17 0 100 3.4 3.5 3.7 -1.6 19.8 23.2 4.3 5.6 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 5.8 5.1 4.8 -0.4 38.2 40.1 4.4 5.6 6.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 5.8 4.7 4.8 -0.4 37.3 40.0 4.3 5.5 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 70 30 0 100 4.3 4.0 2.7 -1.2 24.3 27.8 4.8 5.6 6.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 6.3 4.4 4.0 -0.9 31.0 34.3 4.5 5.8 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 90 10 0 100 3.0 2.8 -0.3 -2.0 16.9 19.5 3.8 4.9 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 4.0 4.7 4.3 -1.0 30.6 33.4 4.8 5.9 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 2.6 2.5 2.2 -1.4 23.0 26.7 3.2 4.0 4.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 1.2 1.1 0.2 -0.7 31.7 33.0 1.1 2.4 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 6.3 5.1 5.1 -0.4 38.0 39.9 4.8 5.9 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------