***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2015.-03.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 45.9 46.5 49.0 99.5 56.5 52.0 35.4 40.2 61.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 41.8 39.0 47.4 95.9 53.2 50.3 26.8 36.8 49.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 55.8 54.6 50.3 102.1 55.0 53.1 36.0 52.3 58.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 70.7 68.8 56.1 96.6 52.5 49.4 52.8 68.5 73.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 55.1 52.1 56.5 100.4 53.0 51.0 39.7 51.2 65.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 53.4 47.4 69.0 92.7 44.5 44.2 40.6 48.9 58.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 40.1 36.8 47.7 96.6 55.8 51.8 20.9 34.8 45.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 69.6 81.0 58.4 97.7 49.7 48.0 66.8 81.2 95.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 54.0 51.9 56.1 102.2 53.5 51.9 37.9 51.3 57.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 64.9 59.9 61.7 100.6 53.2 50.5 43.2 57.9 66.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 58.4 54.6 52.2 98.8 49.6 49.8 42.7 54.6 62.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 40.9 52.1 49.6 96.9 48.3 48.4 39.6 52.3 59.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 58.2 53.2 59.4 96.0 46.7 47.3 45.8 54.4 60.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 63.3 57.2 59.4 95.9 49.7 48.2 50.8 57.3 67.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 51.3 47.8 50.5 89.2 47.1 45.6 39.2 48.3 54.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 60.2 52.4 55.2 95.6 46.3 48.0 43.4 56.8 67.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 40.2 39.1 45.4 92.4 52.6 48.0 30.7 36.9 41.7 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 42.6 57.3 68.3 99.7 53.7 49.9 45.3 55.3 67.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 47.6 44.7 47.8 97.0 51.8 50.2 32.2 44.4 50.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 35.2 45.2 72.8 97.8 49.6 48.0 37.6 45.2 68.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 49.1 49.5 51.5 103.1 56.3 53.2 36.9 45.6 58.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 31.3 42.4 45.6 93.1 50.0 47.5 33.9 42.3 48.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 45.5 42.5 49.2 97.4 50.1 49.4 37.0 42.5 52.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 58.1 53.4 60.2 99.3 53.2 50.2 46.3 51.8 61.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 51.6 60.7 60.1 102.6 57.2 54.0 37.1 47.3 66.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 51.5 45.8 53.4 92.1 45.6 44.2 38.0 46.8 58.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 50.7 51.1 57.2 101.6 58.0 53.9 33.4 45.5 56.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 54.4 47.2 53.2 92.1 48.2 47.0 35.1 48.6 63.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 55.3 69.0 70.2 99.1 51.3 49.6 62.9 68.6 82.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 39.3 39.7 48.3 98.0 53.3 51.7 29.9 35.9 51.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------