***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2015.-03.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 2.2 5.2 12.2 126.2 72.0 55.8 2.2 3.6 4.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 4.2 5.9 12.8 127.8 67.4 57.3 1.8 2.6 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 7.3 10.5 12.5 123.0 70.8 57.3 2.2 5.1 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.5 8.5 12.4 91.4 60.4 50.0 6.2 7.9 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 2.4 7.2 12.7 99.1 65.7 51.9 3.0 4.8 7.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 4.4 9.0 14.2 79.3 56.5 45.2 3.8 8.8 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 5.5 8.7 12.7 131.9 70.0 57.1 1.2 4.0 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 6.4 11.9 12.6 87.2 53.8 46.8 7.9 9.9 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 2.1 8.4 12.9 107.6 68.6 54.2 2.5 4.8 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 3.3 9.3 13.5 95.9 59.3 49.9 2.9 5.9 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 1.8 5.5 11.1 89.0 59.3 48.7 1.2 4.3 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 2.7 7.6 10.6 85.4 55.9 47.3 3.2 6.1 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 3.7 7.4 12.2 83.9 56.2 47.0 3.9 6.6 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.3 13.8 15.0 110.6 68.9 54.6 5.4 8.0 11.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.8 5.3 9.9 74.7 54.6 45.2 2.8 4.8 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 2.3 5.4 11.7 85.6 57.8 47.8 2.0 4.2 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 4.3 4.5 11.6 112.1 65.5 53.5 1.5 2.8 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 3.8 10.5 15.7 99.0 61.0 51.7 2.9 6.6 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 5.4 6.6 12.7 126.0 66.9 57.6 1.9 4.3 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 4.2 8.4 16.6 90.1 54.0 48.3 4.0 7.2 10.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 2.0 6.6 11.8 115.3 71.5 55.1 2.3 4.2 5.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 1.8 5.9 11.2 104.7 62.1 52.1 0.8 3.5 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 6.6 8.8 12.8 124.2 66.7 57.4 2.8 5.6 8.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 3.0 12.0 14.5 109.3 66.6 54.5 3.2 5.8 11.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 3.0 9.6 14.1 111.0 65.3 53.4 1.9 5.9 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 1.5 3.6 10.2 71.8 45.7 42.1 2.4 3.8 9.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 2.0 6.9 14.2 121.2 68.4 54.4 2.4 3.5 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 1.8 4.6 11.1 80.9 59.6 46.9 2.5 3.7 8.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 6.1 16.6 16.3 96.8 59.9 51.0 3.3 11.3 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 4.6 6.8 13.0 132.2 68.7 58.5 0.6 3.8 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------