***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2015.-26.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 6.6 20.8 13.9 112.7 72.1 53.5 5.5 14.1 18.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 3.6 11.4 14.8 115.1 69.6 52.8 3.2 7.2 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 4.6 13.7 14.5 118.2 66.9 54.5 5.9 9.4 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 7.7 19.8 16.7 120.0 70.6 56.2 8.1 11.1 17.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.8 14.0 15.6 115.4 66.0 55.1 4.8 8.6 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 11.4 12.4 20.7 103.7 59.0 51.7 3.8 9.8 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 8.3 10.2 14.9 110.7 68.5 53.0 3.9 6.7 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 19.1 19.9 16.1 109.4 59.2 53.2 10.0 14.4 27.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 4.5 9.9 14.8 110.7 61.5 53.7 5.5 9.0 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 6.5 14.3 16.8 110.9 60.3 53.4 6.1 10.4 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.5 13.1 14.1 112.3 65.5 54.8 5.3 8.5 13.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.5 11.8 13.3 107.4 59.5 53.3 7.3 9.4 16.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 12.4 10.2 16.8 107.5 57.3 52.9 4.3 9.0 16.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.3 10.2 16.5 109.2 59.6 51.6 6.0 9.1 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 3.5 17.7 15.4 116.4 70.2 53.9 2.5 6.0 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 4.9 14.1 15.5 109.1 63.1 54.2 4.5 8.5 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 3.8 12.9 14.7 116.9 66.5 51.7 4.4 6.4 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 7.9 17.1 18.6 108.5 62.2 52.1 6.8 13.8 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 3.7 16.6 14.5 119.2 69.3 53.3 3.0 6.9 15.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 13.2 13.6 20.6 113.1 61.1 54.5 4.7 10.4 14.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.7 12.7 13.7 113.5 64.5 54.6 3.5 7.5 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 3.9 11.8 14.5 124.4 67.1 53.1 4.0 7.7 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 3.4 10.9 14.4 119.1 67.4 53.1 2.7 6.0 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.4 15.1 16.6 110.7 62.2 51.9 4.8 9.2 18.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 16.9 18.5 17.5 122.4 73.6 56.9 5.2 8.9 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 11.2 9.1 14.6 98.4 54.5 50.1 2.4 8.1 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 4.2 18.0 16.6 117.4 72.7 54.8 3.8 8.1 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.9 16.6 15.9 114.4 68.0 54.7 4.6 7.6 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 19.4 18.0 19.0 109.2 62.6 52.7 7.7 15.2 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 5.1 12.0 14.6 114.2 69.2 53.5 4.1 8.4 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------