***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2015.-19.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 6.2 10.8 10.5 86.6 51.3 43.9 7.5 10.7 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 6.1 9.2 10.3 78.2 49.3 42.1 5.6 9.4 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 9.4 16.9 11.0 91.7 56.9 45.8 11.3 13.9 19.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 13.4 22.0 13.2 100.8 59.5 49.2 14.2 19.6 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 18.9 20.5 13.4 107.0 62.1 50.8 10.9 14.8 21.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 14.8 11.2 17.6 100.6 58.4 50.8 7.4 10.8 21.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 5.8 11.1 10.2 77.9 53.2 41.8 4.9 10.6 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 28.7 27.9 14.2 105.2 55.7 50.1 19.4 25.9 28.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 18.5 17.4 13.7 108.9 60.2 51.6 8.8 14.8 20.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 10.7 20.1 14.9 107.6 57.8 50.7 12.2 18.0 21.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 9.2 21.7 12.9 114.1 63.5 51.2 10.5 16.9 22.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 17.1 16.3 12.3 110.0 60.4 51.8 8.2 13.8 20.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 11.6 22.1 14.8 106.3 63.1 51.9 12.3 19.6 23.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 11.4 20.1 14.1 91.4 58.7 46.3 14.2 18.1 21.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 8.7 15.6 13.0 97.6 58.0 47.8 9.0 14.3 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 19.0 17.6 13.5 105.4 62.6 50.6 9.4 15.1 23.6 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 5.6 10.5 10.3 76.3 52.0 42.4 5.3 10.3 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 9.6 15.7 16.5 101.7 56.3 49.4 10.3 14.6 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 6.0 11.0 10.5 80.4 50.8 42.8 6.4 10.6 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 6.8 11.1 17.2 92.8 53.0 47.3 8.7 10.5 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 18.4 18.6 12.3 104.9 60.9 50.4 9.4 15.4 25.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 13.9 12.3 11.0 83.2 55.6 45.5 6.8 11.0 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 7.0 15.3 10.8 82.8 55.6 43.8 7.8 12.1 19.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 9.8 18.4 14.2 97.8 57.3 47.7 9.7 14.6 20.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 18.8 17.6 13.2 95.4 55.5 47.7 7.8 16.3 23.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 16.1 19.8 14.2 110.8 64.6 52.9 4.9 13.0 20.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 8.1 14.4 12.1 87.6 52.0 45.3 8.8 13.6 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 7.3 19.5 13.1 99.6 59.5 48.8 6.9 11.4 21.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 22.8 22.3 17.1 99.6 55.4 49.6 13.1 20.0 26.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 6.4 11.6 10.3 80.4 50.2 42.3 5.0 11.4 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------