***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2015.-12.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 5.5 8.7 12.4 82.1 50.8 46.1 5.4 8.7 11.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 9.4 6.5 9.5 71.3 46.4 42.7 3.0 7.4 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 11.1 9.3 12.3 83.0 49.6 46.5 6.3 9.3 14.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 18.3 17.0 13.8 78.9 49.3 45.3 8.5 17.2 21.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 5.8 9.7 14.8 85.2 50.3 46.2 4.8 9.7 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 11.2 7.8 16.5 86.7 50.4 46.6 3.2 7.6 14.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 5.6 3.5 9.8 74.8 49.7 44.4 1.9 3.6 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 20.9 19.4 15.5 91.1 54.3 48.1 10.0 18.4 22.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 5.7 9.0 14.7 86.7 48.5 46.2 5.0 9.4 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.0 13.8 16.4 90.7 54.5 47.9 8.0 12.0 16.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 4.1 7.8 14.0 85.5 52.8 45.6 4.9 7.4 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 10.9 8.9 13.4 88.2 51.3 47.7 3.0 8.9 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 3.9 7.5 15.6 87.8 50.4 47.6 3.8 7.3 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 18.6 16.8 13.8 77.6 49.1 43.2 9.7 16.9 20.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 9.8 7.1 12.1 72.5 49.1 43.4 1.5 7.3 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 4.9 9.0 14.6 85.1 52.1 46.3 3.5 8.5 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 7.0 4.8 8.8 69.4 48.9 42.7 3.3 4.8 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.5 15.3 17.5 91.3 54.3 48.1 5.7 11.3 16.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 12.2 6.9 10.1 72.2 44.7 42.0 5.8 9.8 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 12.7 10.3 18.4 95.7 57.0 49.7 6.1 9.3 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 9.9 8.3 13.7 86.1 50.5 46.9 5.3 8.3 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 9.8 7.0 8.9 66.3 43.4 40.3 6.0 8.1 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 13.2 9.2 11.2 74.5 45.2 41.9 6.7 10.1 16.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 12.9 10.9 14.8 83.5 50.7 45.2 8.0 10.8 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.9 9.2 15.3 86.3 52.5 47.1 6.4 8.9 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 11.2 9.0 14.4 89.3 52.2 49.9 3.5 8.4 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 12.0 10.5 14.3 86.3 53.5 47.8 6.0 9.8 12.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 13.1 10.3 13.3 77.4 50.1 44.7 3.1 10.3 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 17.1 14.8 17.9 92.1 55.4 48.6 8.9 13.4 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 8.3 6.4 10.4 75.0 48.0 44.0 3.9 6.4 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------