***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2015.-03.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 17.5 17.9 16.7 -0.9 28.0 34.8 17.9 18.5 19.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 17.6 17.4 16.7 -0.7 30.5 37.9 17.4 18.5 19.0 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 17.7 17.8 16.8 -0.9 29.7 35.3 17.9 18.7 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 9.8 10.8 15.0 -1.0 27.6 34.0 11.0 11.4 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 17.7 18.2 15.3 -1.0 28.4 34.0 18.6 19.0 19.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 16.5 16.8 13.4 -1.0 30.0 36.0 16.9 17.6 18.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 17.4 17.3 16.7 -0.7 31.1 37.7 17.4 18.3 18.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 5.1 5.5 13.6 -1.1 27.1 33.8 5.7 6.6 7.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 17.2 17.5 15.8 -1.0 28.7 34.5 17.8 18.4 19.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 17.2 17.6 14.5 -1.1 27.5 33.9 17.8 18.5 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 17.2 17.8 14.9 -1.0 28.0 34.2 18.0 18.4 19.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 16.6 16.9 14.5 -1.0 27.1 34.5 17.1 17.8 18.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 17.5 17.7 14.1 -1.0 27.1 35.6 18.1 18.6 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 17.7 17.7 15.6 -0.9 33.8 37.0 17.7 18.5 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 17.7 18.1 15.6 -0.9 27.8 35.1 18.1 18.7 19.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 17.7 18.2 14.6 -1.0 27.9 34.7 18.4 19.2 19.8 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 17.0 17.2 16.5 -0.6 33.7 39.6 17.2 18.0 18.4 30 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 16.6 17.1 13.7 -1.2 26.8 33.8 17.3 17.8 18.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 17.3 17.2 16.8 -0.7 31.5 37.7 17.3 18.3 18.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 11.5 11.7 11.3 -1.3 24.7 32.0 12.1 12.8 13.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 17.4 17.9 16.4 -1.0 29.6 34.4 18.1 18.6 19.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 17.7 17.8 16.6 -0.6 35.1 39.7 17.6 18.6 19.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 17.6 17.8 16.7 -0.8 33.2 37.3 17.8 18.6 19.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 17.3 17.6 15.4 -1.0 30.8 35.4 17.6 18.2 18.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 17.3 17.7 15.4 -1.0 27.4 33.8 18.1 18.6 19.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 17.1 17.0 13.7 -1.0 26.0 35.2 17.2 18.0 18.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 72 28 0 100 17.4 17.4 16.1 -0.9 27.3 34.6 17.8 18.5 18.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 17.9 18.3 15.3 -0.9 28.4 34.9 18.5 18.8 19.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 71 29 0 100 11.7 11.9 12.7 -1.2 27.0 33.6 12.1 12.9 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 17.4 17.3 16.8 -0.8 28.8 36.7 17.5 18.6 18.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------