***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2015.-03.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 20.3 21.2 19.5 -0.3 44.5 47.8 20.5 21.6 23.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 19.5 21.2 19.4 -0.3 41.8 46.8 20.4 21.8 23.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 19.6 20.8 19.6 -0.2 43.9 48.0 20.2 21.4 23.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 12.1 14.0 18.1 0.0 49.3 50.2 12.6 14.0 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 21.8 21.1 18.2 0.0 50.6 49.8 20.0 21.1 23.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 18.5 20.7 16.6 0.4 57.0 53.9 18.0 20.2 21.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 19.1 20.6 19.4 -0.3 42.1 46.6 19.9 21.0 23.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 9.5 9.7 16.9 0.2 55.1 51.9 6.9 8.9 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 21.5 20.6 18.6 -0.1 49.3 49.2 19.4 20.7 22.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 21.5 21.5 17.5 0.0 52.9 50.5 19.7 20.9 22.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 19.6 22.0 17.9 0.1 54.8 51.2 19.5 21.3 22.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 20.7 20.7 17.7 0.2 56.2 52.4 18.6 20.1 21.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 21.8 21.6 17.2 0.3 56.3 53.1 19.4 21.3 22.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 19.5 21.0 18.4 -0.1 45.3 48.4 20.1 21.2 22.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 19.9 21.5 18.4 0.1 51.2 51.3 19.9 21.5 23.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 22.5 22.3 17.7 0.2 55.7 52.4 19.7 22.0 23.1 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 18.9 20.3 19.2 -0.3 41.6 46.5 19.5 21.1 22.9 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 18.6 20.2 16.9 0.0 51.4 50.3 18.9 20.1 22.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 19.0 20.3 19.5 -0.3 42.2 47.1 19.7 21.4 23.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 15.9 15.6 14.8 0.2 51.8 51.4 13.3 15.2 16.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 21.9 20.7 19.2 -0.2 46.4 48.6 19.8 21.3 23.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 19.1 20.7 19.2 -0.3 41.1 46.4 20.4 21.3 23.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 19.4 20.9 19.4 -0.2 43.8 47.4 20.1 21.4 23.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 19.6 20.6 18.3 -0.1 47.6 49.1 19.5 20.8 22.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 22.0 20.9 18.2 -0.2 45.5 48.2 20.1 21.5 23.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 20.6 20.7 16.9 0.3 57.1 53.1 18.4 20.1 21.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 19.3 20.8 18.8 -0.3 44.5 47.7 19.7 21.0 23.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 22.1 21.9 18.3 0.2 52.3 51.7 19.9 21.6 22.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 15.8 15.0 16.0 0.1 50.1 50.5 13.4 15.0 16.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 19.1 20.7 19.6 -0.3 42.4 47.0 19.5 21.7 23.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------