***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2015.-26.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 18.0 19.3 18.4 -0.2 48.4 47.6 18.7 19.4 20.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 17.8 19.6 18.3 -0.1 47.7 48.7 18.4 19.6 20.5 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 17.8 19.5 18.5 -0.2 46.3 47.8 18.5 19.6 20.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 10.4 11.8 16.9 -0.3 47.9 47.8 10.8 12.2 13.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 18.3 19.4 17.1 -0.3 46.4 47.5 18.9 19.5 20.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 18.5 17.9 15.5 -0.1 51.6 50.8 17.1 17.9 18.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 17.6 19.3 18.2 -0.1 48.5 48.9 17.5 19.3 19.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 8.1 7.0 15.6 -0.3 46.5 48.1 6.4 7.5 8.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 17.6 18.9 17.5 -0.3 45.1 47.5 18.4 18.9 19.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 19.5 18.7 16.3 -0.3 45.0 47.7 18.3 18.9 19.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 19.9 18.8 16.7 -0.3 46.5 47.8 18.2 19.3 20.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 19.1 18.4 16.4 -0.3 47.1 48.5 17.7 18.5 20.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 19.7 19.0 16.0 -0.2 48.9 49.7 18.5 19.1 20.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 18.1 19.6 17.2 -0.3 47.6 47.5 18.5 19.7 20.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 17.4 18.8 17.2 -0.2 49.0 48.8 18.3 18.9 20.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 20.1 19.3 16.5 -0.2 48.3 48.8 19.0 19.3 20.5 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 17.4 18.6 18.1 0.0 46.3 49.3 17.4 19.2 19.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 19.2 18.4 15.7 -0.3 45.1 47.5 17.7 18.5 19.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 17.8 19.3 18.4 -0.1 47.3 48.5 18.2 19.4 20.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 14.5 13.6 13.5 -0.4 46.0 47.4 12.9 13.8 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 17.9 19.3 18.1 -0.3 45.6 47.4 18.6 19.5 20.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 17.9 19.4 18.1 -0.1 45.7 49.0 18.1 19.7 20.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 18.1 19.5 18.3 -0.2 47.4 48.0 18.6 19.7 20.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 19.7 18.9 17.1 -0.3 46.1 47.5 18.2 19.1 19.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 17.5 19.3 17.0 -0.3 48.6 47.2 18.2 19.4 20.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 19.0 18.4 15.7 -0.2 49.5 49.6 17.8 18.5 20.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 17.4 18.9 17.7 -0.2 49.0 47.6 17.8 18.9 20.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 17.6 18.9 17.1 -0.2 48.4 48.5 17.9 19.2 20.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 14.5 13.6 14.7 -0.3 45.5 47.5 13.0 13.8 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 17.6 19.2 18.4 -0.2 48.0 48.4 17.7 19.4 20.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------