***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2015.-19.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 16.7 16.2 16.6 -0.3 46.1 47.0 15.5 16.3 17.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 16.9 16.4 16.7 -0.1 49.3 48.6 14.8 16.6 17.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 16.5 15.9 16.7 -0.4 44.8 46.5 15.3 16.2 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 9.6 8.9 15.0 -0.6 42.7 44.3 8.3 9.3 10.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 17.2 16.3 15.2 -0.5 44.1 44.9 15.7 17.0 17.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 14.1 15.0 13.2 -0.7 44.4 44.5 14.2 15.4 16.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 16.6 16.2 16.7 0.0 50.0 49.2 14.8 16.2 17.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 5.3 3.8 13.6 -0.6 43.5 44.3 3.0 5.1 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 16.9 16.4 15.6 -0.5 46.3 45.3 15.0 16.7 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 16.6 16.0 14.3 -0.6 44.6 44.6 15.4 16.3 17.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 17.1 16.3 14.7 -0.6 43.8 44.7 15.1 16.8 17.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 15.9 15.0 14.4 -0.6 43.5 44.4 14.2 15.6 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 17.0 16.0 13.9 -0.7 42.7 44.3 15.1 16.6 17.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 17.0 16.1 15.4 -0.4 45.0 45.7 15.0 16.6 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 17.0 16.5 15.2 -0.6 41.9 44.1 15.7 16.7 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 17.2 16.2 14.4 -0.7 42.0 44.3 15.8 16.8 17.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 16.1 15.9 16.5 0.1 50.8 49.9 14.1 15.7 17.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 16.3 15.2 13.7 -0.7 42.8 44.1 14.6 15.8 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 16.3 15.5 16.7 -0.2 47.8 47.9 14.8 15.9 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.2 9.1 11.2 -0.8 40.5 42.3 8.7 10.7 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 17.0 16.3 16.2 -0.4 45.7 45.7 15.0 16.7 17.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 16.5 16.1 16.5 0.0 49.7 49.5 14.9 16.2 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 16.7 16.2 16.5 -0.3 45.9 46.8 15.0 16.4 17.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 16.4 15.6 15.3 -0.5 45.0 45.1 15.1 15.9 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 16.7 16.2 15.2 -0.4 43.6 45.8 15.7 16.4 17.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 16.4 15.0 13.6 -0.6 43.7 44.5 14.6 15.9 16.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 16.7 15.9 16.0 -0.3 46.3 47.0 15.1 16.4 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 16.9 16.3 15.1 -0.6 41.5 44.1 15.4 16.6 17.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 10.9 9.9 12.7 -0.7 42.2 43.8 9.0 10.4 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 16.5 15.5 16.7 -0.2 47.7 47.9 14.9 16.1 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------