***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2015.-12.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 82 18 0 100 13.6 13.2 12.4 -2.7 18.1 22.1 14.4 16.6 18.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 79 21 0 100 13.6 12.9 12.6 -2.3 16.5 23.4 15.0 16.6 18.2 30 Becej 27400G00 79 21 0 100 14.0 13.4 12.4 -2.7 18.1 23.1 14.7 17.2 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 83 17 0 100 6.8 6.2 10.0 -3.1 20.1 23.0 7.1 10.5 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 77 23 0 100 14.4 14.2 10.6 -3.2 19.3 22.5 14.9 17.7 20.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 83 17 0 100 13.3 12.5 8.2 -3.7 15.1 22.6 14.3 16.8 18.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 80 20 0 100 13.9 13.2 12.5 -2.4 16.3 22.3 14.7 16.8 18.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 77 23 0 100 2.5 1.6 8.5 -3.6 14.5 21.9 3.0 5.5 7.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 76 24 0 100 13.9 14.1 11.6 -3.0 19.9 23.5 14.9 16.9 19.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 77 23 0 100 14.2 13.2 9.6 -3.5 16.8 22.5 14.9 17.8 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 77 23 0 100 14.1 13.2 10.3 -3.3 17.1 22.6 15.2 17.4 19.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 78 22 0 100 13.7 12.6 9.4 -3.5 15.7 22.3 14.2 17.0 19.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 81 19 0 100 14.4 13.3 9.3 -3.5 14.5 22.3 15.3 17.3 20.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 14.3 13.6 11.5 -2.6 17.8 25.4 14.6 16.8 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 83 17 0 100 14.5 14.5 11.8 -2.8 21.6 23.9 15.8 17.8 19.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 78 22 0 100 14.7 13.7 9.9 -3.4 15.9 22.1 15.5 18.0 20.6 30 Nis 06700G01 78 22 0 100 13.3 12.7 12.4 -2.2 19.1 23.9 14.2 16.1 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 76 24 0 100 13.4 12.3 8.6 -3.6 14.8 21.8 14.4 16.7 18.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 78 22 0 100 13.8 13.3 12.7 -2.3 17.6 24.0 14.5 16.5 18.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 80 20 0 100 8.3 7.1 5.8 -4.3 12.0 19.2 9.4 12.3 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 76 24 0 100 14.3 14.3 12.2 -3.0 20.0 23.4 15.2 17.0 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 75 25 0 100 14.0 13.8 12.5 -2.1 21.4 25.5 14.7 16.3 17.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 76 24 0 100 14.2 14.0 12.6 -2.4 17.9 24.6 14.7 16.5 18.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 14.1 13.2 10.9 -3.0 17.1 23.8 14.4 16.8 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 83 17 0 100 14.4 13.9 11.1 -2.9 18.9 22.5 15.2 17.2 18.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 82 18 0 100 14.1 13.2 8.4 -3.6 13.6 20.9 14.8 16.8 19.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 82 18 0 100 14.4 14.0 11.8 -2.8 17.7 21.8 15.0 17.1 18.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 82 18 0 100 14.7 14.7 10.7 -3.1 20.4 23.3 15.9 17.6 19.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 77 23 0 100 8.3 7.0 7.6 -3.8 13.9 21.1 9.5 12.1 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 79 21 0 100 13.7 12.9 12.6 -2.5 16.5 22.9 14.6 16.7 18.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------