***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2015.-03.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 6.2 6.5 6.5 -0.9 24.2 29.8 6.8 7.4 7.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 5.9 5.6 6.6 -0.7 29.0 33.6 5.9 7.2 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 74 26 0 100 7.7 7.7 6.4 -0.8 22.6 30.0 8.3 8.9 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 74 26 0 100 2.5 2.2 4.2 -1.0 19.1 26.2 2.9 3.5 4.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 77 23 0 100 4.7 4.7 4.3 -1.0 18.8 26.0 5.1 5.7 6.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 3.7 3.5 2.6 -0.9 20.2 29.3 4.0 4.5 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 6.0 6.0 6.6 -0.7 27.7 33.3 6.1 7.0 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 75 25 0 100 -1.6 -1.9 2.4 -1.1 17.1 25.0 -1.3 -0.5 0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 77 23 0 100 5.4 5.3 4.7 -1.0 20.6 27.2 6.0 6.3 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 78 22 0 100 5.7 5.5 3.1 -1.1 17.1 24.7 5.8 6.3 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 78 22 0 100 5.4 5.3 3.8 -1.0 17.7 25.2 5.8 6.0 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 76 24 0 100 3.7 3.5 3.3 -1.0 17.4 25.5 4.1 4.7 5.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 78 22 0 100 4.7 4.5 3.0 -1.0 17.4 25.7 5.3 5.6 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 6.1 5.9 4.9 -0.8 20.5 30.0 6.5 7.1 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 6.3 6.1 5.0 -0.9 22.5 28.9 6.7 7.2 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 76 24 0 100 5.9 5.7 3.5 -1.0 17.5 25.5 6.3 6.7 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 6.4 6.6 6.4 -0.6 30.0 34.7 6.6 7.1 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 74 26 0 100 3.7 3.5 2.4 -1.1 16.5 24.7 3.8 4.3 4.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 5.9 6.0 6.5 -0.7 28.0 33.0 6.1 6.9 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 76 24 0 100 0.6 0.3 0.5 -1.3 16.4 23.7 1.3 1.5 2.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 74 26 0 100 5.6 5.4 5.8 -1.0 20.3 28.1 5.9 6.5 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 5.5 5.7 6.4 -0.6 29.8 34.5 5.9 6.5 7.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 5.7 5.6 6.1 -0.7 23.5 31.6 6.0 6.6 6.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 5.6 5.4 4.5 -0.9 18.6 28.2 5.7 6.4 6.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 5.5 5.5 5.0 -1.0 20.9 26.9 6.2 7.1 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 75 25 0 100 4.6 4.3 3.1 -1.0 16.5 26.5 5.1 5.6 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 75 25 0 100 5.7 5.6 5.8 -0.9 23.0 28.7 6.1 7.6 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 4.1 4.2 4.6 -0.9 20.4 27.8 4.9 5.3 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 75 25 0 100 2.6 2.3 1.8 -1.1 16.7 25.0 3.2 3.7 4.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 6.0 5.9 6.6 -0.8 26.9 32.5 6.3 7.4 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------