***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2015.-12.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 85 15 0 100 4.2 2.5 2.7 -2.8 12.2 17.5 4.9 5.7 7.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 87 13 0 100 3.1 2.7 2.9 -2.4 14.8 19.2 4.9 5.5 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 90 10 0 100 5.5 4.8 2.7 -2.6 11.6 16.7 6.4 7.7 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 87 13 0 100 -0.8 -2.0 0.5 -2.7 13.5 16.8 0.6 1.6 3.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 95 5 0 100 2.3 2.0 0.9 -2.7 11.5 15.6 3.6 5.0 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 93 7 0 100 1.5 0.6 -1.1 -2.6 10.7 15.1 2.8 4.2 4.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 89 11 0 100 3.7 3.1 2.9 -2.4 13.2 19.0 5.1 5.6 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 95 5 0 100 -3.7 -4.5 -1.6 -3.2 10.7 13.6 -2.4 -1.8 -0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 95 5 0 100 3.2 3.0 1.4 -2.7 12.0 14.5 4.4 5.4 6.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 95 5 0 100 3.5 3.2 -0.7 -3.1 11.4 13.7 4.5 5.9 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 94 6 0 100 3.1 2.2 0.4 -2.7 11.4 14.5 4.3 5.6 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 93 7 0 100 1.6 0.9 -0.6 -2.9 10.6 14.4 3.1 4.5 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 95 5 0 100 2.5 2.3 -0.4 -2.7 10.5 14.3 4.3 5.1 5.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 89 11 0 100 4.3 3.8 1.5 -2.5 12.3 17.2 5.1 6.0 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 89 11 0 100 4.8 4.6 2.1 -2.4 15.4 18.4 5.2 5.8 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 93 7 0 100 3.6 3.2 0.2 -2.7 11.3 14.5 5.3 6.1 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 87 13 0 100 3.8 3.5 2.8 -2.2 16.5 21.0 4.7 6.1 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 93 7 0 100 1.8 1.2 -1.6 -3.3 11.9 13.6 2.7 3.8 4.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 88 12 0 100 3.5 3.2 2.9 -2.4 14.2 18.7 4.5 5.6 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 96 4 0 100 -0.9 -1.4 -4.3 -3.8 11.7 12.6 0.3 0.8 1.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 91 9 0 100 3.2 2.4 2.4 -2.7 12.3 16.1 4.3 5.6 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 84 16 0 100 3.5 3.1 2.9 -2.1 16.5 21.5 4.4 5.6 6.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 89 11 0 100 3.4 3.0 2.7 -2.4 12.2 17.6 4.3 5.5 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 91 9 0 100 4.0 3.4 1.0 -2.7 12.2 15.7 4.8 5.6 6.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 85 15 0 100 3.5 2.7 1.6 -2.9 12.9 17.5 4.5 5.8 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 95 5 0 100 2.9 2.6 -0.9 -2.8 10.8 15.2 3.8 4.9 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 84 16 0 100 3.0 1.9 2.1 -2.9 12.9 17.8 4.8 5.9 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 88 12 0 100 2.2 1.8 1.2 -2.5 14.3 17.2 3.2 4.0 4.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 95 5 0 100 0.4 0.0 -2.4 -3.5 11.6 13.2 1.1 2.4 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 88 12 0 100 4.1 3.4 3.0 -2.5 12.9 18.2 4.8 5.9 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------