***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.04.2021.-02.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 35.8 38.7 51.0 84.8 41.5 41.4 35.3 45.2 62.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 28.3 33.3 45.5 87.5 41.8 43.0 27.7 39.0 47.3 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 40.2 49.5 51.1 87.6 42.5 43.0 37.3 54.2 60.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 49.7 61.8 55.2 78.0 32.8 36.3 62.1 69.1 75.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 36.7 43.2 54.4 82.3 37.7 39.1 41.4 49.6 65.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 37.2 37.8 59.5 80.1 31.0 34.5 38.9 47.5 61.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 26.3 29.4 45.9 88.3 42.6 43.6 22.6 37.7 47.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 68.5 71.5 60.5 85.3 39.4 39.4 66.8 82.0 96.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 38.1 46.6 55.3 82.7 37.9 39.3 39.7 51.3 59.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 43.4 44.5 62.7 84.2 38.3 39.3 41.0 60.1 69.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 36.6 44.5 53.8 84.8 38.4 39.9 41.4 48.8 63.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 38.8 45.6 51.7 83.6 37.6 38.9 39.5 51.5 59.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 44.6 48.2 58.0 83.1 34.1 37.6 46.7 54.6 60.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 48.5 57.4 65.7 86.3 42.6 41.4 51.7 58.3 67.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 36.4 44.9 50.5 77.1 37.1 36.8 42.5 50.3 56.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 40.5 47.1 54.6 82.8 35.8 38.2 46.4 56.8 65.9 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 29.2 35.0 44.6 87.6 41.6 43.1 30.5 36.3 42.4 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 39.8 51.9 65.8 84.2 39.6 39.4 45.3 54.3 61.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 32.2 38.1 47.7 89.1 43.5 44.0 32.7 42.0 52.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 33.5 43.7 69.1 86.9 41.0 39.6 39.9 45.6 62.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 34.0 39.2 52.1 82.1 37.2 39.0 37.0 43.0 54.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 29.3 42.4 47.9 88.8 45.0 44.3 34.1 42.9 49.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 33.1 42.4 51.5 90.5 44.4 44.9 37.8 44.3 54.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 38.8 50.3 61.0 86.0 41.6 41.3 46.4 50.8 64.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 39.5 43.5 55.9 80.4 35.8 38.1 42.2 54.7 62.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 32.5 40.2 54.3 82.1 34.0 36.6 40.2 47.3 59.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 36.5 45.2 54.0 84.6 41.2 41.3 38.1 47.8 58.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 33.4 36.2 52.7 76.6 33.8 35.4 36.0 49.4 63.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 56.4 67.4 69.7 88.4 44.4 42.1 59.0 69.6 82.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 29.5 32.7 47.1 87.6 42.2 43.3 28.3 38.4 52.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------