***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.04.2021.-02.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 2.4 4.3 13.9 84.9 50.0 41.9 3.1 4.3 5.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 2.1 4.0 12.4 86.9 52.6 43.4 2.0 3.8 5.6 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 2.6 6.6 14.7 91.4 54.7 43.0 2.2 5.5 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 3.8 6.9 16.0 83.6 48.4 41.4 3.9 7.3 11.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 2.2 5.4 15.5 83.9 48.9 41.3 4.4 5.6 7.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 4.3 9.0 18.0 85.9 47.6 43.2 5.8 9.4 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 1.7 4.8 12.2 85.5 54.2 43.6 1.7 3.8 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 7.7 12.2 17.7 87.1 50.5 42.7 6.9 12.1 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 1.6 4.7 16.5 86.0 49.8 41.6 1.8 4.8 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 3.6 7.5 18.9 87.5 49.3 42.5 3.2 7.5 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 1.4 3.5 14.7 85.3 49.6 42.0 2.0 3.6 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 3.2 5.8 14.6 83.7 48.5 41.7 2.8 6.2 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 4.0 7.4 16.7 86.2 46.6 42.7 4.8 7.6 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 3.7 8.6 20.3 90.1 51.0 44.5 5.9 8.4 11.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 2.2 5.0 14.6 80.7 52.1 42.5 2.5 4.9 6.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 2.2 5.0 15.6 86.0 47.6 42.5 2.1 5.7 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 1.5 4.2 11.8 85.8 54.5 44.2 1.7 3.0 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 3.3 7.9 20.2 87.2 49.7 42.4 2.9 8.1 12.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 2.3 4.1 13.5 91.2 54.4 44.4 2.8 3.8 6.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 4.3 8.2 20.3 87.4 50.0 41.9 6.0 8.2 10.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 1.3 4.3 15.3 86.3 49.2 41.6 2.6 4.3 5.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 1.7 4.5 13.2 88.7 54.7 44.6 2.4 4.2 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 2.9 7.1 15.1 94.6 56.3 45.0 2.1 5.8 8.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 3.3 7.5 18.7 90.9 52.6 44.1 3.2 6.9 8.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 2.5 6.2 15.8 84.3 49.3 41.9 3.7 6.2 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 1.7 3.9 14.8 80.5 48.4 41.3 2.1 4.0 9.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 2.4 5.4 14.6 85.1 49.8 42.3 2.9 5.4 7.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 1.6 4.0 15.9 83.6 49.2 42.0 1.6 4.1 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 6.3 12.7 20.7 88.7 50.8 43.1 6.2 12.5 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 1.7 4.8 12.9 87.1 53.3 43.2 2.2 4.5 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------