***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.04.2021.-25.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 8.9 16.9 14.9 99.6 59.6 50.0 8.3 13.1 19.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 9.2 8.2 13.1 106.1 61.1 52.2 4.2 7.8 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 11.9 13.2 14.6 103.0 61.7 52.0 6.0 9.1 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 17.3 17.2 16.3 98.7 58.0 50.3 10.7 15.2 18.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.0 13.6 16.2 102.1 60.8 51.7 5.3 10.0 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 12.1 11.9 19.0 101.1 57.4 51.1 6.2 9.8 15.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 4.6 7.4 13.4 106.9 61.0 51.6 4.3 6.9 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 19.0 19.6 18.3 111.4 61.8 54.5 11.6 14.7 22.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.3 16.5 99.9 61.0 52.0 7.2 9.6 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.3 14.8 19.2 109.0 61.3 54.4 8.7 12.3 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 14.2 14.4 15.8 108.7 61.9 53.3 8.6 11.9 19.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 14.0 15.4 15.5 106.9 61.4 53.1 7.4 10.8 16.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 15.5 15.6 17.5 101.6 58.2 51.8 8.2 12.3 19.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 12.7 11.7 18.0 98.0 58.5 51.8 6.3 9.8 14.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 10.1 13.6 16.8 109.7 66.8 52.9 4.4 7.4 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.8 13.9 16.1 100.6 58.2 51.0 5.7 10.0 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 3.8 11.2 12.3 98.4 59.3 50.9 4.8 6.8 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 16.9 18.0 19.7 104.5 59.2 53.1 7.4 13.6 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.3 12.8 13.8 107.5 62.6 53.5 4.7 7.3 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 14.1 11.1 19.0 100.5 54.5 50.2 6.1 10.6 15.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.8 13.2 14.5 93.9 58.1 49.5 5.8 10.7 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 10.6 11.6 13.4 100.9 63.4 53.0 2.9 7.8 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 8.9 10.2 14.6 107.2 63.7 54.7 2.7 7.0 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 14.6 17.5 17.6 101.8 59.8 52.9 8.3 12.5 18.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 6.5 11.4 15.2 87.6 54.2 46.4 6.6 10.9 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 11.8 9.2 16.5 104.3 59.1 51.2 3.6 8.4 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 5.9 13.2 15.4 96.3 57.7 48.6 7.4 11.0 16.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.8 11.2 16.3 100.5 60.3 50.5 5.5 8.0 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 18.4 16.8 20.0 105.9 59.3 53.0 9.2 15.2 21.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 6.1 11.2 14.0 108.9 63.0 52.4 6.9 9.8 11.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------