***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.04.2021.-18.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 8.9 17.5 11.7 84.2 58.6 43.5 6.7 15.2 22.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 7.4 11.9 9.9 74.9 54.0 41.4 6.9 11.1 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 11.0 18.1 12.4 89.7 58.7 43.9 11.4 16.4 23.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 13.4 22.1 13.7 84.0 53.7 43.7 14.1 21.7 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 9.1 15.2 12.7 84.8 53.4 41.9 11.2 14.8 23.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 8.9 13.8 13.9 82.3 47.8 41.8 8.2 14.9 21.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 6.2 11.3 9.9 74.6 53.1 41.6 6.1 10.5 17.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 19.0 31.3 14.7 92.3 57.7 45.4 19.3 28.8 34.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 7.4 19.4 12.6 83.4 53.5 41.1 7.5 16.3 22.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 10.2 19.4 14.4 88.7 54.9 43.1 9.3 16.3 21.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 6.8 17.2 14.2 92.6 55.4 45.5 9.9 14.0 22.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 9.2 18.1 12.6 87.2 55.8 44.2 6.9 16.0 22.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 8.4 19.4 13.8 87.1 53.9 44.4 12.7 19.1 25.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 11.2 21.4 14.2 85.2 55.2 39.7 14.3 21.0 23.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 8.3 16.2 12.3 77.2 53.3 43.4 11.3 16.0 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 8.4 17.5 13.4 86.5 55.1 43.4 10.2 15.0 26.5 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 7.8 15.1 10.0 75.4 52.6 41.9 6.8 14.5 16.6 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 9.0 15.3 13.7 82.8 50.7 40.9 9.6 15.3 17.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 16.2 15.3 10.6 80.6 56.2 42.0 8.7 14.5 17.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 7.4 18.0 16.2 90.2 57.2 44.2 7.1 12.7 20.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 9.8 15.3 12.2 84.8 55.2 41.4 10.2 12.7 20.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 6.6 13.9 11.1 82.1 55.6 43.2 7.6 11.7 17.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 9.4 19.0 11.6 86.5 58.4 41.5 9.5 16.0 20.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 9.5 17.2 13.2 84.4 53.2 40.0 10.8 15.7 21.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 9.3 17.5 12.7 79.2 52.3 41.7 14.3 16.5 23.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 8.3 17.1 14.3 90.8 55.3 45.6 9.4 15.2 19.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 8.3 17.9 12.1 81.4 55.3 42.9 11.1 15.1 21.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 7.4 14.6 12.7 79.8 52.1 42.5 9.3 13.6 21.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 14.6 21.7 15.4 89.7 54.7 43.9 15.5 20.6 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 7.8 15.2 10.4 77.7 56.9 42.0 9.4 13.5 19.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------