***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.04.2021.-11.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 8.8 6.5 10.6 70.8 43.5 42.7 4.2 7.6 9.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 8.2 7.6 10.1 83.2 51.7 48.5 3.0 7.0 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 8.0 6.4 9.4 66.1 44.0 41.7 4.4 6.7 10.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 9.6 8.8 9.2 49.0 35.3 32.8 8.4 17.0 20.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 11.3 6.3 10.0 59.7 37.7 36.7 4.3 7.8 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 2.2 1.3 8.7 48.7 26.9 27.6 2.5 7.7 12.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 5.9 5.2 10.4 87.5 52.7 49.9 1.6 4.3 9.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 8.1 7.5 9.8 54.5 30.5 31.6 9.4 16.5 19.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 10.0 5.1 9.8 60.4 39.3 38.1 4.1 7.1 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 5.6 6.2 10.2 54.5 31.1 32.7 6.2 11.5 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 3.9 3.3 9.0 55.8 35.9 34.1 2.9 6.6 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.0 2.1 9.0 58.4 35.3 34.6 1.5 6.5 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.0 3.0 10.0 57.7 35.3 34.5 2.8 5.3 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 14.1 9.6 13.3 71.4 44.1 43.1 7.2 12.3 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 3.2 4.6 6.8 42.0 37.3 34.6 2.8 7.2 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.9 3.1 9.5 58.2 36.5 35.4 2.9 7.4 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 5.7 4.2 10.5 92.1 55.1 51.1 2.9 3.9 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.6 5.3 12.1 62.3 35.5 36.6 4.9 7.8 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 8.7 6.0 9.8 77.0 48.7 46.2 3.9 6.1 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.7 7.1 13.7 71.2 41.0 39.6 4.8 8.8 11.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 8.8 5.3 10.1 63.4 42.6 39.6 4.4 6.7 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 7.5 6.5 10.2 83.6 51.9 48.7 4.3 6.2 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 10.6 7.6 10.1 73.1 46.0 44.3 4.3 8.5 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.6 6.6 11.5 66.1 40.5 40.2 5.4 9.1 10.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 9.2 6.8 12.3 70.3 44.4 42.6 5.7 7.4 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 2.1 1.2 8.7 53.5 30.4 31.9 1.6 5.8 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 10.3 8.7 11.9 75.4 44.9 44.6 3.4 9.0 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 3.8 3.5 7.7 43.9 33.9 31.5 3.5 8.8 13.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.9 11.0 13.6 70.6 41.6 40.4 9.8 11.7 15.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 7.5 6.3 9.8 77.1 49.0 46.2 3.3 6.4 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------