***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.04.2021.-02.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 18.6 18.4 17.6 0.4 52.7 54.9 17.8 18.4 18.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 18.6 18.4 17.5 0.4 52.0 54.5 17.4 18.3 19.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 18.6 18.4 17.8 0.4 52.0 55.0 17.9 18.3 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 11.6 11.3 14.9 0.3 49.9 53.3 10.7 11.3 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 19.1 18.9 16.0 0.4 50.5 54.0 18.1 18.8 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 17.7 17.8 14.1 0.5 56.7 56.6 16.8 17.5 18.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 18.2 18.0 17.4 0.4 52.8 54.3 17.4 17.9 18.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 6.8 6.6 14.3 0.4 50.5 54.4 5.5 6.6 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 18.5 18.3 16.5 0.4 50.7 54.6 17.4 18.3 18.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 18.7 18.5 15.2 0.5 51.5 55.4 17.6 18.5 18.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 18.8 18.5 16.1 0.3 49.8 53.8 17.8 18.5 19.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 18.0 17.8 15.3 0.3 49.2 53.0 16.8 17.8 18.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 18.9 18.8 15.2 0.4 51.2 53.9 17.8 18.6 19.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 18.5 18.5 16.4 0.5 54.3 55.9 17.7 18.3 18.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 18.7 18.4 16.2 0.1 48.2 51.2 18.0 18.4 18.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 19.3 19.0 15.5 0.3 51.5 53.6 18.1 19.0 19.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 17.8 17.7 17.2 0.5 53.9 55.8 17.0 17.6 18.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 18.2 17.9 14.7 0.6 52.9 56.3 17.2 17.8 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 18.4 18.4 17.6 0.4 52.3 54.2 17.4 18.3 18.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 12.9 13.2 12.3 0.5 53.9 55.2 11.9 12.5 13.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 18.5 18.3 17.4 0.5 52.1 55.5 17.9 18.2 19.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 18.5 18.6 17.3 0.5 56.4 56.4 17.5 18.3 18.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 18.6 18.6 17.6 0.3 52.4 53.5 17.7 18.4 19.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 18.1 17.9 16.4 0.5 53.5 56.1 17.5 17.8 18.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 18.6 18.5 16.1 0.4 50.4 53.8 17.9 18.5 18.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 18.1 18.0 14.5 0.3 52.7 53.8 17.0 17.9 18.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 18.4 18.2 16.9 0.4 51.6 53.9 17.5 18.2 18.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 19.0 18.8 15.4 0.2 50.3 52.7 18.3 18.7 19.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 12.8 12.6 13.9 0.5 52.4 55.8 12.0 12.4 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 18.3 18.2 17.5 0.4 51.8 54.0 17.4 18.1 18.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------