***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.04.2021.-02.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 22.9 23.1 20.2 1.6 71.6 64.4 20.0 21.3 22.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 23.4 23.2 20.1 1.7 71.7 64.8 19.9 21.5 22.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 22.9 23.1 20.3 1.6 69.6 63.8 19.8 21.1 22.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 15.6 15.8 17.7 1.4 68.3 62.6 12.3 14.6 15.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 22.6 23.1 18.3 1.4 67.2 62.7 20.4 20.8 23.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 20.8 20.9 16.4 1.7 68.2 63.8 18.2 19.6 20.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 22.8 22.8 20.0 1.7 72.0 64.9 19.2 21.0 21.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 10.0 10.1 16.9 1.5 65.8 62.7 7.2 8.6 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 22.3 22.4 18.6 1.5 66.6 63.0 19.6 20.9 22.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 21.9 22.2 17.6 1.6 66.0 63.2 19.4 20.3 22.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 22.1 22.3 18.2 1.4 65.9 61.9 19.7 20.5 22.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 20.0 21.4 17.8 1.4 65.0 61.8 18.6 19.5 21.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 22.0 22.0 17.1 1.4 65.5 62.4 19.9 20.7 22.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 22.7 22.5 18.6 1.7 67.2 64.0 19.9 21.1 22.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 21.7 22.6 18.4 1.2 67.1 61.8 19.4 21.4 22.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 22.7 22.9 17.7 1.4 67.2 62.2 20.2 21.5 22.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 22.5 22.9 20.0 1.8 73.0 65.6 19.3 21.1 22.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 21.7 21.6 17.2 1.7 65.7 63.8 18.8 20.1 21.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 22.7 22.7 20.1 1.6 70.1 64.2 19.7 21.0 22.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 15.1 16.6 14.7 1.7 65.7 64.0 13.7 14.5 16.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 22.6 23.0 19.6 1.6 68.0 63.6 19.9 20.9 22.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 22.8 23.1 19.9 1.8 71.5 65.1 20.1 21.3 22.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 22.9 22.8 20.1 1.5 67.4 63.3 20.0 21.2 22.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 22.2 21.9 18.6 1.6 67.0 63.5 19.6 20.4 21.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 22.7 22.9 18.5 1.5 70.2 63.7 20.1 20.9 22.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 21.0 21.0 17.0 1.4 63.5 62.2 18.9 19.8 21.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 22.5 22.7 19.4 1.6 71.5 64.4 19.2 20.8 22.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 22.6 22.5 17.9 1.3 67.6 62.0 19.5 21.6 22.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 16.5 16.3 16.3 1.7 65.0 63.9 13.6 14.9 16.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 22.9 22.7 20.1 1.6 71.5 64.3 19.6 21.2 22.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------