***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.04.2021.-25.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 19.3 19.9 18.4 0.4 57.5 53.9 17.3 18.8 20.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 19.1 19.5 18.3 0.5 58.4 54.4 17.4 18.5 20.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 19.4 19.4 18.6 0.4 56.7 54.1 17.2 18.9 20.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 11.7 11.3 16.0 0.2 55.2 52.0 10.3 11.0 12.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 19.5 19.2 16.7 0.2 53.6 52.4 17.5 18.9 20.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 18.0 18.0 14.5 0.2 54.8 52.2 16.3 17.6 18.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 18.9 18.9 18.2 0.5 58.9 54.5 17.0 18.3 20.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 7.3 7.2 15.3 0.3 55.6 52.8 4.9 6.7 8.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 18.6 18.6 17.0 0.3 53.4 53.0 17.0 18.2 19.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 18.8 18.7 15.9 0.3 54.8 52.9 17.3 18.3 19.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 18.8 18.4 16.5 0.1 51.8 51.3 17.4 18.2 19.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 18.3 17.9 16.2 0.2 53.7 51.9 16.3 17.8 19.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 19.1 19.1 15.4 0.3 54.8 52.8 17.4 18.4 19.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 19.6 19.5 17.0 0.5 56.7 53.9 17.9 19.3 19.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 19.0 18.5 16.5 -0.2 52.7 50.2 17.3 18.3 19.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 19.3 19.3 16.0 0.2 54.0 52.0 17.8 18.6 20.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 18.5 18.9 18.2 0.6 60.2 55.6 16.8 17.9 19.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 18.1 18.2 15.7 0.6 56.5 54.6 17.1 17.6 19.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 19.1 19.1 18.4 0.5 57.9 54.2 17.1 18.6 19.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 13.6 14.0 13.2 0.7 58.3 55.6 11.7 13.0 14.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 19.3 19.2 18.0 0.5 56.5 54.2 17.3 18.8 20.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 19.6 19.7 18.2 0.7 59.7 56.0 17.8 19.1 20.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 19.5 19.4 18.4 0.4 57.3 53.7 17.8 19.1 20.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 18.8 19.1 17.0 0.5 55.9 54.0 17.3 18.3 19.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 18.9 18.7 16.7 0.4 56.9 53.5 17.2 18.2 20.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 18.8 18.7 15.3 0.3 56.2 52.6 16.9 18.3 19.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 18.9 18.7 17.6 0.4 57.1 54.0 17.2 18.2 20.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 19.0 18.3 16.1 0.0 53.8 51.0 17.3 18.2 19.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 13.6 13.5 14.8 0.7 57.7 55.3 12.0 13.1 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 19.2 19.0 18.3 0.4 57.2 53.8 17.2 18.6 20.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------