***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.04.2021.-18.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 17.1 16.7 17.3 0.5 54.9 54.0 15.0 16.6 17.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 16.9 16.9 17.2 0.5 55.3 53.9 14.7 16.5 17.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 17.0 17.0 17.4 0.5 54.4 53.2 15.2 16.7 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 9.5 9.3 14.3 0.3 53.0 51.6 8.1 9.1 10.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 17.4 17.4 15.7 0.4 51.7 52.3 15.6 17.1 18.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 16.0 15.9 13.9 0.7 56.0 55.6 14.5 15.6 17.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 17.1 16.7 17.1 0.5 55.7 54.5 14.6 16.7 17.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 5.0 4.9 14.2 0.6 52.5 54.0 3.2 4.7 5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 16.7 16.3 16.3 0.3 49.5 51.8 15.0 16.3 17.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 17.1 16.9 14.9 0.5 50.2 53.1 14.8 16.9 17.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 17.2 16.8 15.9 0.4 49.1 52.3 15.5 16.8 17.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.6 15.0 0.5 52.3 53.1 14.1 15.4 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 17.1 16.7 15.3 0.5 51.4 53.6 15.7 16.7 17.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.2 16.2 0.4 52.6 53.0 15.1 16.0 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 17.0 16.7 15.9 0.1 51.0 50.8 15.7 16.7 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 17.4 17.1 15.4 0.4 50.1 52.9 15.8 17.1 17.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 16.3 16.1 16.9 0.6 55.5 54.7 14.3 15.8 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.3 14.5 0.6 52.2 54.1 14.0 16.2 17.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 16.4 16.3 17.3 0.4 54.5 53.4 14.6 16.0 17.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 11.5 11.6 12.4 0.9 56.5 56.2 9.3 11.1 11.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 17.2 16.9 17.1 0.5 52.6 53.1 15.5 16.8 17.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 16.4 16.8 17.1 0.7 57.7 55.4 14.8 16.0 17.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 16.4 16.1 17.2 0.3 52.3 52.5 15.1 15.9 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 16.6 16.3 16.1 0.5 51.8 53.2 14.4 16.2 17.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 17.1 16.9 15.9 0.4 54.4 53.0 15.7 16.8 17.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 16.6 16.8 14.4 0.7 56.7 55.3 15.1 16.3 17.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 17.0 16.8 16.7 0.5 55.5 54.0 15.3 16.6 17.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 16.9 16.6 15.0 0.2 50.6 51.2 15.4 16.6 17.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 11.1 11.1 13.8 0.7 54.1 54.8 9.1 10.7 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 16.8 16.4 17.2 0.5 55.3 53.8 14.6 16.3 17.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------