***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.04.2021.-11.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 14.3 15.2 14.5 -0.8 35.1 38.4 15.1 16.6 17.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 14.9 15.4 14.3 -1.0 33.3 37.0 15.4 17.1 18.7 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 15.8 15.5 14.7 -0.7 35.9 39.8 15.3 17.9 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 11.6 8.4 11.5 -0.6 37.7 39.7 7.7 10.9 12.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 18.7 15.7 13.2 -0.6 37.2 40.9 15.5 18.1 19.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 17.6 14.5 11.3 -0.4 38.0 43.1 14.5 16.8 19.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 14.8 15.0 14.1 -1.1 30.6 36.2 15.2 17.2 18.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 3.9 2.9 11.1 -0.8 33.5 39.1 2.9 5.6 7.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 18.3 15.5 14.1 -0.5 36.9 41.3 15.1 17.8 18.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 18.5 15.6 12.4 -0.5 36.7 42.3 15.3 17.8 20.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 18.4 15.5 13.7 -0.4 37.7 42.6 15.2 17.7 20.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 17.7 14.6 12.1 -0.8 34.5 38.9 14.6 17.0 19.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 16.0 15.3 13.0 -0.7 34.5 39.4 15.3 17.6 20.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 15.7 15.1 13.8 -0.6 37.0 40.8 14.9 17.1 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 18.5 16.6 13.9 -0.8 36.6 37.6 16.3 17.8 19.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 19.0 15.9 12.9 -0.7 36.1 40.3 15.8 18.3 20.5 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 14.3 14.7 13.9 -1.0 31.9 37.4 14.7 16.3 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 15.7 14.9 11.5 -0.6 34.6 41.1 14.9 17.6 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 15.0 15.3 14.4 -1.0 34.0 37.1 15.2 17.1 18.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 10.5 9.1 8.7 -1.3 29.0 35.2 9.2 12.8 14.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 18.1 15.8 14.8 -0.6 38.0 41.5 15.7 17.4 18.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 15.1 14.8 14.0 -1.0 33.5 37.4 14.8 17.0 18.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 15.5 15.2 14.5 -1.0 35.1 37.5 14.9 17.1 19.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 15.5 15.2 13.9 -0.4 37.5 42.6 15.1 16.9 18.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 15.5 15.9 13.3 -0.9 34.3 37.6 15.8 17.3 18.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 15.2 15.1 11.1 -1.0 31.6 35.5 15.1 16.6 19.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 15.2 15.7 13.7 -1.1 31.8 36.1 15.8 17.5 18.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 18.7 17.0 12.7 -0.6 38.5 40.1 16.3 18.1 19.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 10.5 9.3 10.5 -0.9 32.4 38.5 9.3 13.0 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 15.2 15.2 14.4 -1.0 33.0 36.9 15.2 17.1 18.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------