***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.04.2021.-02.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 7.6 7.3 7.6 -0.1 44.7 47.8 6.5 7.4 7.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 6.0 6.8 7.2 -0.2 43.2 45.2 5.9 7.0 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 9.0 8.3 7.6 -0.2 39.9 44.5 8.1 8.8 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 2.5 2.8 4.8 -0.2 39.8 43.7 2.7 3.1 4.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 4.9 5.1 5.3 -0.2 38.6 43.2 5.0 5.5 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.8 4.1 3.0 -0.2 39.4 43.2 3.9 4.3 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 6.0 6.5 7.3 -0.1 43.8 46.1 6.0 6.7 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -1.4 -1.4 2.9 -0.4 34.1 39.4 -1.4 -0.7 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 5.5 6.0 5.3 -0.4 35.1 40.7 6.0 6.2 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 5.7 5.9 3.7 -0.4 32.8 39.0 5.9 6.2 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 5.4 5.7 4.6 -0.4 33.3 39.1 5.7 6.0 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.0 4.0 3.9 -0.3 36.8 41.1 3.9 4.7 5.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 4.9 4.9 3.5 -0.4 33.0 38.9 4.9 5.4 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 6.3 6.5 5.1 -0.4 34.9 39.7 6.4 7.0 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 6.3 6.7 6.0 -0.4 35.7 40.8 6.7 7.0 7.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 6.0 6.3 4.1 -0.4 34.6 40.2 6.2 6.5 7.9 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 6.3 6.7 7.0 -0.1 43.1 45.3 6.5 6.9 7.8 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 3.7 3.8 3.1 -0.3 34.7 40.6 3.7 4.2 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 5.9 6.2 7.1 -0.2 39.6 43.5 6.1 6.6 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 0.8 1.2 1.2 -0.4 32.1 39.0 1.2 1.4 2.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 5.7 6.0 6.8 -0.2 39.9 44.5 5.7 6.3 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 5.6 6.1 6.9 -0.2 40.2 44.6 5.8 6.4 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 5.7 5.8 6.8 -0.4 33.8 40.6 5.8 6.3 6.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 5.7 5.7 5.1 -0.3 35.1 40.6 5.7 6.3 6.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 7.2 6.6 6.5 -0.1 44.5 48.1 6.0 7.0 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 5.8 5.0 3.2 -0.3 39.9 43.0 4.9 5.5 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.9 7.2 7.2 0.0 45.9 48.7 6.0 7.6 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 4.3 4.9 5.1 -0.3 37.2 41.5 4.8 5.1 5.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 2.7 2.9 2.3 -0.5 29.7 37.2 3.0 3.4 4.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 6.3 6.7 7.4 -0.2 42.6 45.2 6.0 7.3 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------