***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.04.2021.-02.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9.5 10.8 10.4 1.2 69.0 63.3 8.7 9.1 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 9.8 10.8 10.1 1.2 67.6 63.3 8.2 9.4 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 11.4 12.1 10.3 1.0 66.8 62.2 9.7 10.9 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 5.7 6.5 7.6 0.9 63.3 60.6 4.4 5.4 6.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 8.1 8.4 7.7 0.8 62.9 60.0 6.6 7.6 8.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 6.0 6.4 5.8 1.0 62.3 61.2 4.8 5.7 6.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 9.5 10.5 10.1 1.2 67.6 63.1 7.7 9.1 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 1.6 1.3 5.6 0.8 61.6 60.1 0.1 1.2 1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 8.5 9.0 7.9 0.8 64.4 60.6 7.0 8.1 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 8.3 8.7 6.4 0.8 62.6 60.1 7.2 7.8 9.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 7.8 8.1 7.0 0.7 60.4 58.8 6.2 7.4 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 6.3 6.6 6.3 0.7 60.6 59.5 4.8 6.0 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 7.2 7.8 5.9 0.8 58.5 59.6 6.2 7.0 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 9.0 9.7 7.9 0.9 64.8 61.3 7.5 8.4 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 8.9 9.3 8.6 0.8 62.1 60.2 8.2 8.6 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 8.8 8.9 6.5 0.8 60.3 59.3 7.9 8.5 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 9.5 10.4 10.0 1.3 67.7 64.0 8.6 9.2 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 6.3 6.5 5.6 0.8 61.4 59.8 4.8 5.8 6.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 9.2 10.4 10.1 1.2 67.3 63.1 7.9 8.7 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 3.0 3.4 3.6 0.8 59.1 59.2 1.9 2.6 3.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 8.6 9.6 9.4 1.0 67.0 61.9 7.2 8.2 9.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 8.6 9.5 9.8 1.2 67.5 64.2 7.7 8.3 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 8.9 9.3 9.8 1.0 66.0 62.5 7.9 8.6 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 8.3 8.8 7.6 0.8 63.7 60.4 7.2 7.9 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 9.2 10.1 8.9 1.1 68.1 62.5 7.4 8.8 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 7.1 7.8 5.6 0.8 61.1 60.4 5.9 6.8 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 10.1 11.5 9.8 1.2 69.2 63.0 7.1 9.5 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 6.9 7.5 7.8 0.8 61.2 60.0 5.7 6.6 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 6.0 5.9 5.0 0.7 60.2 59.1 4.4 5.6 6.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 9.7 10.6 10.2 1.2 66.9 62.7 8.2 9.3 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------