***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.04.2021.-25.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 7.8 7.7 8.7 0.3 55.5 53.1 6.2 7.6 8.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 7.7 7.3 8.4 0.2 53.5 52.7 5.6 7.3 7.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 8.9 8.6 8.7 0.3 53.6 52.8 7.9 8.5 10.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 4.2 3.9 6.1 0.2 52.7 52.1 2.0 3.9 4.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 5.7 5.6 6.3 0.3 53.5 52.6 4.3 5.3 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 4.9 4.9 4.4 0.5 58.0 56.1 3.7 4.6 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 7.6 7.3 8.4 0.2 52.4 52.9 6.2 7.3 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 0.0 0.1 4.5 0.6 56.5 56.6 -1.7 -0.3 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 6.3 7.1 6.5 0.4 55.1 53.8 5.1 5.8 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 6.8 7.0 5.2 0.5 55.7 55.8 5.3 6.5 7.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 6.3 6.3 5.7 0.3 54.4 53.6 5.0 5.9 7.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 5.0 4.7 5.1 0.4 54.4 54.6 3.8 4.6 5.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 6.0 5.5 4.5 0.3 55.2 53.8 5.0 5.4 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 7.1 7.1 6.6 0.5 55.6 55.0 6.2 6.9 8.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 6.0 6.9 7.0 0.0 46.4 49.8 6.3 7.0 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 7.4 7.2 5.1 0.3 54.2 53.5 5.6 7.0 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 7.5 7.2 8.2 0.2 53.5 53.4 6.1 7.1 8.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 4.6 4.5 4.6 0.6 56.8 57.5 3.5 4.1 5.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 7.2 7.0 8.4 0.3 53.5 52.7 5.6 6.8 7.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 2.1 2.1 2.6 0.7 55.1 57.2 0.7 1.9 2.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 6.5 6.2 7.9 0.4 54.4 53.7 5.4 6.1 7.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 6.8 6.6 8.1 0.3 53.5 53.6 5.2 6.4 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 6.7 6.7 8.3 0.3 53.9 53.2 5.3 6.2 7.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 6.6 6.5 6.3 0.5 55.2 55.3 4.9 6.2 6.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 7.1 7.1 7.4 0.3 54.4 53.2 5.4 6.7 7.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 5.8 5.7 4.2 0.3 56.3 53.5 4.7 5.4 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 7.6 7.4 8.1 0.2 52.9 52.4 5.5 7.2 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 4.2 5.2 6.2 0.1 49.2 51.2 4.3 5.2 5.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 4.0 4.2 4.1 0.7 57.3 57.9 2.6 3.6 4.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 7.7 7.6 8.5 0.2 52.8 52.5 6.3 7.4 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------