***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.04.2021.-18.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 7.1 6.9 7.5 0.3 52.0 53.8 5.7 6.8 7.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.0 5.5 7.0 0.1 50.7 52.2 4.3 5.5 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.4 8.2 7.4 0.2 51.8 52.7 6.4 8.1 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 2.7 2.5 4.6 0.1 52.1 51.3 0.7 2.4 3.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 5.8 5.4 5.4 0.2 52.3 52.5 2.9 5.4 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 4.6 4.5 3.0 0.4 53.5 54.4 3.3 4.3 5.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.5 6.3 7.0 0.1 51.2 51.9 4.6 6.2 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -3.3 -1.1 3.1 0.4 53.5 54.4 -2.3 -1.2 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 4.2 6.2 5.4 0.2 51.4 52.8 3.9 6.1 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 4.3 6.2 3.8 0.3 51.8 53.1 4.0 6.1 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.3 6.2 4.7 0.2 51.2 51.3 3.7 6.1 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 5.0 4.7 4.0 0.4 53.4 53.9 3.3 4.6 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 5.7 5.3 3.4 -0.1 44.9 48.3 4.4 5.4 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 4.5 5.7 5.0 0.0 46.9 50.0 4.5 6.0 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 5.2 6.6 5.7 -0.1 47.4 48.1 5.6 6.8 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 6.6 6.2 4.1 0.1 49.6 50.5 4.9 6.3 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 6.5 6.0 6.7 0.1 49.3 51.6 5.3 6.2 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 4.3 4.0 3.3 0.3 52.2 53.7 2.7 3.9 4.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 6.1 5.6 6.9 0.1 49.2 51.8 4.5 5.6 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 -0.2 1.6 1.5 0.3 52.4 54.0 0.3 1.5 2.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 6.8 6.4 6.7 0.2 51.3 52.6 4.1 6.4 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 5.8 5.4 6.7 0.1 48.3 51.2 4.0 5.5 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 5.7 4.8 6.7 0.0 46.0 50.8 4.2 5.0 7.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 6.0 5.5 5.1 0.2 49.7 51.8 4.4 5.6 6.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 6.6 6.6 6.5 0.3 51.4 54.3 4.4 6.4 7.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 5.6 5.3 3.2 0.2 50.9 52.7 4.2 5.2 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 6.7 6.1 7.0 0.3 51.0 53.9 4.6 6.1 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 5.6 5.3 4.9 0.0 49.6 49.5 3.4 5.3 5.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 0.8 2.5 2.6 0.2 50.2 52.2 1.0 2.5 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 6.4 6.2 7.2 0.2 51.7 52.4 4.7 6.0 6.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------