***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.04.2021.-11.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 4.4 4.8 4.0 -2.0 22.6 25.2 5.2 6.4 7.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 79 21 0 100 3.5 4.1 3.4 -2.2 21.1 23.0 5.0 5.6 6.3 30 Becej 27400G00 81 19 0 100 6.2 6.0 3.8 -2.3 18.9 21.9 7.0 7.8 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 88 12 0 100 -0.1 -0.3 1.1 -2.2 18.2 21.1 1.0 1.7 3.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 82 18 0 100 2.6 2.5 2.0 -2.3 18.2 21.9 4.1 4.8 5.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 91 9 0 100 1.7 1.1 -1.1 -2.7 14.4 17.5 2.8 4.2 4.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 75 25 0 100 4.1 4.6 3.6 -2.1 22.8 25.0 5.1 5.7 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 97 3 0 100 -3.5 -3.9 -1.6 -3.3 12.5 14.7 -2.3 -1.6 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 92 8 0 100 3.7 3.5 1.5 -2.9 16.4 18.2 4.5 5.8 6.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 97 3 0 100 3.8 3.7 -0.7 -3.2 13.5 15.4 4.8 5.5 6.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 92 8 0 100 3.1 2.9 1.0 -2.8 16.2 17.7 4.7 5.3 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 94 6 0 100 1.8 1.6 0.1 -2.7 15.5 17.4 2.4 4.0 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 97 3 0 100 2.7 2.8 0.0 -2.8 17.0 18.1 3.7 4.9 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 94 6 0 100 4.3 4.3 1.1 -3.0 16.3 18.2 5.6 5.9 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 90 10 0 100 4.5 4.9 2.6 -2.3 20.2 21.3 5.5 6.6 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 93 7 0 100 3.9 3.9 0.7 -2.7 17.8 18.2 5.2 6.1 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 76 24 0 100 4.5 4.3 3.1 -2.2 21.2 23.7 4.9 6.1 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 93 7 0 100 1.6 1.3 -1.0 -3.0 14.9 17.0 2.6 3.4 4.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 85 15 0 100 3.9 3.8 3.2 -2.5 18.9 20.6 4.5 5.8 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 97 3 0 100 -1.2 -1.5 -3.1 -3.4 13.3 15.2 -0.2 0.8 1.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 80 20 0 100 3.6 3.5 3.1 -2.4 18.9 21.6 4.7 5.9 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 79 21 0 100 3.9 3.6 3.2 -2.3 19.3 22.3 5.0 5.5 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 94 6 0 100 3.4 3.3 2.7 -2.9 15.9 17.1 4.5 5.5 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 93 7 0 100 3.7 3.6 1.3 -2.8 16.0 18.6 5.0 5.4 6.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 77 23 0 100 3.3 4.1 3.3 -2.0 21.9 25.6 4.9 5.7 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 90 10 0 100 3.1 3.0 -0.2 -2.3 18.7 20.3 3.8 4.6 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 73 27 0 100 3.6 4.5 3.9 -1.8 24.0 27.4 5.2 6.4 7.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 92 8 0 100 1.8 1.9 1.5 -2.4 18.7 20.5 2.9 4.2 5.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 97 3 0 100 0.9 0.2 -2.3 -3.6 12.1 14.6 1.7 2.8 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 80 20 0 100 4.2 4.5 3.6 -2.2 20.3 23.0 5.3 5.9 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------