***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.04.2016.-01.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 34.3 48.5 56.3 100.4 52.9 50.8 36.1 41.4 62.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 45.7 42.6 49.0 97.5 51.3 48.8 29.0 41.3 49.0 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 42.2 54.6 54.8 98.0 51.3 50.5 40.2 54.2 60.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 71.7 68.9 64.1 98.4 50.3 49.0 61.4 68.9 75.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 38.7 48.2 59.7 91.2 45.2 45.5 42.2 50.6 67.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 56.5 54.0 72.6 98.5 51.8 48.7 38.3 51.8 61.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 27.6 40.4 49.5 98.0 54.6 49.7 25.3 37.7 47.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 69.3 80.1 68.1 92.1 45.0 44.1 66.8 81.7 99.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 54.1 49.2 61.4 92.8 49.0 47.2 39.8 49.7 59.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 46.2 57.1 70.8 92.4 46.5 45.3 39.7 59.9 69.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 37.9 45.2 59.0 89.1 39.1 43.0 41.4 48.4 63.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 41.2 50.5 59.4 90.0 44.3 42.7 40.2 52.4 60.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 44.5 51.9 68.9 92.2 40.8 43.0 50.0 54.4 58.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 50.2 59.1 70.7 96.8 49.3 48.1 51.6 59.5 67.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 52.1 52.3 62.3 108.1 59.6 55.4 42.6 49.3 55.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 39.3 48.8 62.2 90.8 38.7 42.9 47.8 56.4 65.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 40.5 37.7 47.1 94.0 50.9 47.2 32.8 37.4 42.4 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 41.5 53.7 76.0 94.5 46.4 46.2 46.0 54.9 62.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 33.8 43.5 50.5 97.8 50.0 48.7 33.6 43.5 52.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 54.2 47.4 78.8 95.5 47.4 46.4 42.9 47.8 63.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 48.2 43.2 57.3 95.6 49.6 48.6 39.2 43.3 51.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 32.0 43.1 50.3 96.0 47.7 47.7 36.7 43.5 49.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 35.4 44.2 53.5 96.9 50.7 48.3 36.1 43.9 55.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 41.9 51.1 66.4 94.5 48.5 47.0 47.4 52.4 66.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 40.8 55.4 63.4 97.0 49.0 48.2 41.7 55.5 63.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 35.7 45.8 65.3 94.3 45.0 45.2 40.2 47.0 55.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 34.0 49.8 60.7 100.0 52.5 50.0 38.1 47.8 58.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 36.4 51.8 63.7 101.8 54.3 50.8 35.2 49.2 63.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 55.9 69.7 76.3 94.5 47.0 45.8 67.3 70.2 77.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 29.8 38.6 51.0 98.4 52.0 49.7 28.1 38.4 52.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------