***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.04.2016.-01.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 6.0 6.8 12.5 87.4 61.2 49.1 4.1 5.2 7.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 2.3 5.4 10.9 91.9 59.7 48.8 2.0 4.0 6.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 8.6 8.3 12.4 89.9 62.6 49.8 3.4 6.2 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 4.3 10.3 14.1 89.6 56.2 46.5 3.6 7.4 11.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 2.6 6.2 14.0 88.1 56.4 45.6 2.6 5.4 6.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 4.9 11.4 19.5 103.6 59.1 51.3 4.4 9.2 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 2.1 6.0 11.0 88.0 58.3 47.1 1.5 3.5 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 7.9 13.9 17.9 92.8 52.7 45.6 8.8 13.0 20.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 2.3 5.1 15.0 88.5 56.0 46.3 2.3 4.3 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 4.0 8.4 18.3 92.2 55.1 46.2 4.3 8.1 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 1.9 4.4 14.4 89.7 55.1 45.2 2.1 4.1 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 3.9 7.8 15.0 88.2 49.4 44.4 2.9 7.9 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 4.4 8.5 17.0 90.0 50.5 46.5 4.8 8.5 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 4.5 10.4 18.1 101.2 60.0 49.8 6.0 8.0 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 6.9 5.4 13.4 93.6 61.0 48.8 2.0 4.0 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 3.4 8.4 15.2 90.0 53.2 45.9 2.4 6.4 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 1.8 4.8 10.5 93.1 59.8 48.0 1.8 3.5 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 4.4 11.1 20.2 96.6 57.9 48.1 3.6 10.4 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 2.6 6.2 11.4 94.2 62.3 50.1 3.1 4.2 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 4.6 10.1 21.7 104.4 58.3 49.7 6.5 8.7 10.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 2.8 5.9 13.2 87.2 55.8 47.3 2.3 4.9 8.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 2.1 6.4 11.8 102.7 64.0 49.9 2.3 4.4 6.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.7 8.1 12.2 93.5 61.4 49.7 3.5 7.2 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 3.0 8.0 16.6 92.8 58.0 48.3 3.4 5.6 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 7.8 6.1 13.9 85.2 55.0 46.8 3.6 5.9 8.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 1.8 3.8 15.4 88.6 49.4 44.7 2.4 3.8 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 7.1 6.9 13.3 87.2 57.8 48.2 3.2 5.7 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 2.1 5.0 14.5 95.1 58.8 47.7 1.6 3.9 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 6.0 14.1 20.9 103.4 59.5 49.8 5.9 13.1 16.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 2.5 7.0 11.4 90.1 61.9 48.9 2.9 4.5 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------