***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.04.2016.-24.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 15.0 22.9 15.9 141.9 73.0 63.8 8.3 13.1 21.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 10.1 15.3 14.4 138.5 77.3 61.4 5.2 8.6 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 12.5 19.6 15.8 137.5 71.6 62.8 7.8 9.8 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 18.7 23.1 17.1 122.3 66.6 57.8 12.0 15.1 22.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 12.1 18.4 16.7 118.3 67.1 57.9 5.8 8.0 17.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 12.0 12.5 20.4 112.6 65.5 57.7 6.1 10.0 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 8.3 11.3 14.4 139.8 75.6 63.0 5.7 7.5 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 20.6 22.0 19.2 116.8 64.0 56.2 13.7 17.6 22.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 13.4 13.4 17.8 120.7 68.5 58.6 8.1 9.6 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 16.0 16.8 20.1 116.1 65.4 56.2 8.8 13.0 17.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 16.5 16.4 15.8 108.7 64.7 54.5 9.0 14.0 17.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 14.1 16.2 16.7 112.1 63.7 55.9 8.9 11.6 16.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 17.1 18.9 20.0 114.6 64.5 58.6 9.2 15.4 19.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 14.6 23.6 21.3 136.8 74.2 59.3 7.2 11.5 20.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 13.3 17.1 16.0 125.6 67.4 58.6 5.5 9.8 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 15.9 18.4 17.6 110.5 64.4 56.5 6.6 14.3 18.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 12.7 15.5 14.2 128.9 71.8 59.0 5.1 10.0 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 14.9 18.6 22.3 121.3 66.9 57.5 6.0 12.9 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 12.3 22.1 15.0 141.9 77.4 61.5 5.7 9.6 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 13.0 17.2 22.9 123.6 69.8 58.0 7.3 9.7 16.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 11.6 20.4 16.5 133.8 73.3 61.1 5.8 8.8 17.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 5.9 14.2 14.5 124.3 71.5 56.8 3.9 10.0 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.4 14.1 16.2 146.1 76.0 61.8 3.1 8.1 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 17.6 20.5 19.6 130.3 71.0 59.1 7.4 14.5 18.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 14.6 21.4 17.9 141.2 72.7 63.2 7.2 11.0 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 12.5 13.8 18.8 117.2 64.4 57.8 5.4 10.6 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 14.3 29.7 17.1 142.1 74.1 64.0 6.2 10.1 20.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 13.0 19.0 17.7 123.0 68.6 58.2 4.7 10.3 18.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 20.7 26.0 22.4 122.8 68.4 57.3 11.3 18.5 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 14.7 16.5 14.6 139.4 74.8 62.6 5.8 8.9 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------