***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.04.2016.-17.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 16.8 16.8 17.0 114.7 65.1 55.1 8.1 15.2 17.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 11.7 10.3 14.4 101.3 57.5 51.0 4.4 9.1 15.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 19.8 18.8 16.0 108.0 63.9 55.3 9.6 16.6 19.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 25.0 27.3 19.6 119.1 66.3 57.3 14.8 22.4 27.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 18.6 20.9 17.1 104.3 65.8 54.7 10.5 14.9 21.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 17.3 20.1 18.8 104.1 62.5 54.1 9.1 14.6 23.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 15.0 14.4 14.8 107.1 59.0 53.0 4.5 12.5 14.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 30.7 31.5 16.7 93.4 55.5 50.8 18.2 27.9 34.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 23.4 21.7 16.3 98.5 65.2 54.5 8.8 14.6 21.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 19.2 19.8 17.3 95.8 58.5 53.2 10.7 16.5 24.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 18.5 17.6 16.8 97.5 58.5 52.3 11.8 16.0 22.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 20.3 21.4 16.1 97.1 57.8 51.1 9.3 18.5 22.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 21.0 21.7 19.2 103.5 61.1 52.5 14.5 18.5 24.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 22.9 23.4 17.8 94.8 56.7 50.8 14.0 20.5 25.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 18.8 24.6 19.0 130.2 71.6 60.2 8.9 16.8 21.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 19.1 19.4 18.3 106.9 62.2 54.7 9.6 16.2 20.1 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 6.9 14.9 13.0 91.0 55.7 47.8 6.4 11.9 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 17.3 16.0 18.0 95.0 61.2 53.0 10.1 14.6 21.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.7 13.7 14.5 99.0 57.4 51.0 6.6 9.9 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 17.8 19.7 18.4 92.3 59.3 51.0 10.0 15.8 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 16.8 19.1 16.0 104.7 64.4 55.2 11.8 13.5 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 6.0 12.5 13.4 88.4 54.8 48.8 7.8 10.7 16.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 15.3 17.2 14.8 95.4 59.3 51.1 8.7 12.4 19.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 19.2 19.8 16.9 96.0 59.6 53.2 12.1 16.2 22.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 18.0 22.9 20.3 119.1 67.4 57.1 12.5 15.8 22.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 11.0 16.5 16.6 93.5 53.5 48.2 10.7 16.2 18.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 17.5 25.3 19.1 118.0 66.8 56.1 10.7 14.6 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 18.3 22.7 19.2 127.0 69.2 59.5 7.6 15.5 22.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 24.2 22.4 17.9 90.1 53.6 49.8 13.4 21.2 27.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 13.5 13.4 15.2 108.0 62.5 53.1 4.6 10.3 14.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------