***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.04.2016.-10.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 3.4 4.8 10.9 69.3 45.7 39.6 3.1 5.9 8.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.3 6.9 9.3 67.6 45.7 39.3 2.9 7.9 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.9 6.1 10.6 66.9 47.4 40.2 3.7 6.5 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 14.5 8.8 13.2 70.1 45.9 42.3 6.2 12.4 17.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 10.9 5.7 11.8 62.4 41.3 37.6 4.3 7.3 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.4 5.4 13.9 74.1 43.9 41.9 4.3 6.6 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 2.2 3.4 9.2 66.7 42.5 37.8 1.6 5.3 7.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 7.2 12.1 14.4 70.4 40.6 37.9 9.2 16.1 19.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.7 5.6 12.3 68.8 44.8 39.6 4.0 6.1 9.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 5.3 8.4 15.0 70.3 43.3 38.4 5.1 10.7 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 3.6 6.8 12.1 65.3 43.0 37.2 2.8 7.0 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 3.4 2.7 11.5 66.1 38.6 37.1 1.5 8.1 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 3.5 4.0 12.7 64.0 40.3 36.9 2.8 7.3 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 6.4 9.9 13.5 65.2 44.6 37.8 9.1 11.0 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 6.3 6.4 14.0 87.6 59.2 52.6 2.1 5.3 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 3.2 3.4 11.1 59.9 38.2 35.0 2.5 6.8 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 2.4 3.8 9.3 69.6 45.4 39.9 2.6 4.0 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 4.3 5.9 15.6 70.0 40.4 38.6 4.1 8.2 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.0 5.1 9.6 67.2 45.5 38.9 3.7 6.8 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 3.3 4.1 15.7 67.9 38.2 35.2 3.1 6.4 11.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 3.1 5.4 11.6 67.5 48.4 40.0 3.2 5.5 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 4.0 6.2 10.7 75.9 52.0 42.9 3.2 6.1 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 4.0 5.5 10.2 66.0 44.6 37.9 3.1 6.8 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 4.3 5.5 13.2 67.6 42.0 40.0 4.7 6.8 9.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 3.7 5.3 11.4 58.7 38.2 35.7 5.0 6.9 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 7.4 4.4 14.5 80.1 45.4 45.0 1.9 5.6 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.8 6.0 11.1 65.1 40.9 37.7 3.3 6.8 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 7.7 5.9 12.3 68.8 47.8 43.1 3.4 6.1 12.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 6.7 8.2 15.1 67.4 37.7 36.9 7.3 12.0 16.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.3 5.4 9.8 67.0 46.5 39.1 3.6 5.8 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------