***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.04.2016.-01.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 18.8 19.2 19.0 1.9 83.4 78.4 17.6 18.2 18.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 21 79 100 19.1 19.5 18.8 2.0 82.4 79.0 17.5 17.9 18.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 19.2 20.2 19.2 2.0 82.8 79.4 17.6 18.1 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 12.3 12.8 16.3 1.7 80.6 75.7 10.5 11.1 12.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 19.8 20.5 17.5 2.0 82.4 78.9 18.1 18.6 19.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 18.5 19.7 15.4 2.1 86.3 80.0 16.7 17.2 18.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 18.8 19.8 18.8 2.0 84.0 79.2 17.3 17.6 18.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 18 82 100 7.1 9.0 15.8 2.1 85.9 79.4 5.3 6.3 6.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 19.4 20.3 18.1 2.1 82.6 79.1 17.4 18.2 18.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 15 85 100 19.6 20.4 16.7 2.2 84.4 79.6 17.5 18.2 18.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 19.8 21.0 17.6 2.1 85.5 79.8 17.6 18.3 18.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 18.6 20.0 16.7 2.1 85.6 79.7 16.7 17.5 18.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 20 80 100 19.9 20.8 16.6 2.1 86.6 80.2 17.6 18.5 19.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 19.4 20.4 18.0 2.2 85.9 80.3 17.5 18.1 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 19.4 19.9 17.5 1.5 79.0 73.6 17.7 18.2 18.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 20.2 21.1 17.0 2.1 85.9 79.9 18.0 18.8 19.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 18 82 100 18.3 19.2 18.6 2.0 84.0 79.5 16.9 17.3 18.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 19.2 20.0 16.2 2.2 84.7 79.5 17.1 17.6 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 18.9 19.5 19.0 2.0 82.9 79.3 17.2 17.9 18.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 13.4 15.2 13.6 2.1 85.7 78.4 11.7 12.4 13.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 19.3 20.3 18.9 2.1 82.6 79.3 17.6 18.2 18.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 18.9 20.1 18.7 2.0 85.2 79.6 17.5 18.3 18.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 19.2 20.0 19.1 2.1 85.1 80.1 17.6 18.1 18.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 19.3 20.0 17.9 2.2 84.5 79.8 17.1 17.8 18.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 18.9 19.3 17.6 1.9 81.7 78.3 17.8 18.2 18.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 18.6 19.8 15.5 2.0 84.9 79.5 16.7 17.8 18.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 18.9 20.0 18.4 2.0 83.7 79.2 17.6 17.9 18.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 19.3 19.9 16.8 1.7 80.6 74.8 18.0 18.5 19.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 20 80 100 13.7 14.9 15.4 2.2 85.4 79.5 11.8 12.2 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 18.9 19.5 18.9 2.0 82.7 79.2 17.3 17.8 18.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------