***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.04.2016.-01.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 19.4 21.0 18.4 -0.2 46.3 47.1 19.9 21.1 22.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 18.6 20.9 18.3 -0.3 46.3 47.4 19.8 21.2 22.7 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 18.7 20.6 18.6 -0.2 47.9 46.9 19.6 20.7 22.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 11.6 13.4 16.2 -0.2 47.5 47.9 12.6 13.9 15.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 19.1 20.8 16.9 -0.1 50.3 48.2 19.9 20.7 22.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 17.3 19.3 14.6 -0.1 52.1 48.3 18.1 19.3 20.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 18.5 20.5 18.3 -0.3 46.5 47.3 19.0 20.7 21.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 6.5 8.4 15.2 0.0 51.1 48.9 6.8 8.3 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 18.7 20.4 17.2 -0.1 50.7 48.0 19.2 20.4 21.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 18.5 20.5 16.0 0.0 51.3 48.8 19.1 20.4 21.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 18.5 20.8 16.6 0.0 51.9 48.9 19.8 20.7 21.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 17.6 19.3 16.1 -0.1 50.6 48.6 18.6 19.2 20.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 18.8 20.6 15.4 -0.1 50.9 48.5 19.8 20.5 21.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 18.7 21.0 17.0 0.0 51.5 48.5 19.8 20.8 22.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 18.9 20.3 17.0 -0.3 46.6 47.7 19.5 20.7 21.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 19.1 21.2 16.1 0.0 51.7 48.8 20.1 21.2 22.7 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 18.5 20.4 18.2 -0.3 44.0 47.5 18.8 20.7 22.1 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 18.0 20.1 15.6 0.0 51.1 48.8 18.8 20.0 21.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 18.2 20.5 18.4 -0.2 48.0 47.5 19.7 20.6 22.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 13.1 14.8 13.0 0.0 50.8 48.6 13.5 14.8 16.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 21.4 20.5 18.0 -0.2 48.7 47.2 19.7 20.7 22.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 18.4 20.9 18.1 -0.3 45.7 47.3 19.9 21.1 22.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 18.6 21.3 18.5 -0.1 50.8 48.3 19.7 21.3 22.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 18.5 20.7 17.0 -0.1 50.4 48.0 19.2 20.6 21.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 18.5 20.5 16.9 -0.2 47.3 47.5 19.8 20.5 22.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 18.1 19.8 15.2 -0.1 52.4 48.6 18.5 19.6 20.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 18.8 20.7 17.7 -0.2 46.3 47.5 19.0 21.0 21.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 19.2 20.4 16.5 -0.2 48.4 48.0 19.3 20.8 22.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 13.2 15.1 14.7 0.0 51.3 48.9 13.5 15.1 16.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 18.7 20.7 18.3 -0.2 47.7 47.4 19.6 20.9 22.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------