***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.04.2016.-24.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 19.1 18.6 17.5 -0.7 47.9 45.3 17.2 18.6 19.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 18.9 18.4 17.3 -0.5 49.3 46.0 16.7 18.4 20.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 19.4 18.8 17.6 -0.7 47.5 45.0 16.8 19.0 20.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 11.4 10.3 15.4 -0.7 43.6 45.2 9.2 10.8 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 19.3 18.4 15.9 -0.8 44.6 44.7 16.7 18.9 20.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 17.8 17.2 13.9 -0.6 45.4 46.4 15.6 17.3 18.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 18.6 18.0 17.3 -0.6 49.2 45.8 16.7 18.0 19.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 6.7 5.5 14.2 -0.7 41.6 44.8 4.3 6.2 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 18.8 17.9 16.2 -0.8 44.8 44.4 16.6 18.4 19.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 19.1 17.6 15.0 -0.8 42.1 44.1 16.6 18.7 19.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 18.8 17.6 15.6 -0.7 42.5 44.7 16.7 18.2 19.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 18.2 16.5 15.2 -0.6 42.3 45.5 15.5 17.7 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 18.8 17.5 14.5 -0.6 43.1 45.7 16.7 18.4 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 19.5 18.7 16.0 -0.8 43.4 44.0 17.1 19.0 20.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 18.6 17.6 16.2 -0.5 42.8 46.0 16.6 18.0 19.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 19.0 18.0 15.3 -0.7 43.3 45.4 17.0 18.5 20.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 18.3 17.8 17.2 -0.5 49.3 46.4 16.3 17.8 19.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 18.5 16.7 14.5 -0.9 40.8 43.5 16.5 17.9 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 19.0 18.4 17.4 -0.6 49.0 45.9 16.4 18.5 20.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 13.0 11.7 12.0 -0.8 41.8 44.2 10.7 12.4 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 19.3 18.6 17.0 -0.8 46.4 44.5 16.9 18.9 19.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 19.2 18.8 17.2 -0.5 48.2 46.1 17.2 18.9 20.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 19.4 18.6 17.5 -0.6 48.2 45.5 17.0 19.0 20.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 19.2 17.9 15.9 -0.9 43.5 43.8 16.5 18.8 19.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 18.8 18.0 15.9 -0.7 46.7 44.9 16.3 18.2 20.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 18.3 17.6 14.4 -0.5 44.0 47.5 16.1 17.9 18.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 18.8 18.2 16.8 -0.7 48.2 45.3 16.5 18.3 20.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 18.5 17.5 15.6 -0.6 42.7 45.6 16.7 18.0 19.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 13.8 11.5 13.6 -0.9 40.1 43.3 11.1 13.3 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 18.9 18.4 17.4 -0.6 48.9 45.7 16.3 18.4 20.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------