***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.04.2016.-17.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 18.2 18.7 18.8 2.6 78.7 75.9 14.3 16.6 17.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 18.1 18.6 18.7 2.6 80.8 76.4 14.5 16.4 17.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 17.9 18.4 19.1 2.6 79.5 75.6 15.1 16.5 17.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 10.7 11.3 16.1 2.4 79.3 73.6 7.9 9.2 10.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 18.5 18.8 17.4 2.6 78.0 74.8 15.6 17.5 17.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 17.7 18.4 15.3 2.7 79.7 74.2 14.9 15.9 17.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 18.3 19.0 18.6 2.6 80.0 76.5 14.5 16.7 17.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 6.4 7.0 15.7 2.7 78.0 74.4 3.3 4.5 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 17.9 18.2 18.1 2.6 78.4 75.2 14.7 16.7 17.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 21 79 100 18.1 18.6 16.7 2.8 79.3 75.2 14.3 16.4 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 20 80 100 18.3 18.9 17.6 2.7 79.5 74.9 15.7 16.9 17.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 17.6 18.1 16.5 2.6 78.1 74.3 14.5 15.9 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 20 80 100 18.7 19.3 16.7 2.7 78.9 74.8 15.7 16.8 18.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 17.9 18.7 18.2 2.8 80.1 76.4 14.5 15.8 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 17.9 18.4 17.6 2.2 77.9 73.2 15.1 16.8 17.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 18.7 19.3 16.9 2.6 79.4 74.9 15.9 17.1 18.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 17.5 18.1 18.5 2.7 80.9 77.2 13.9 15.9 17.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 17.7 18.4 16.2 2.8 78.8 75.4 13.8 16.1 17.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 17.9 18.5 18.8 2.6 80.2 76.4 14.5 16.1 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 12.5 13.1 13.5 2.6 75.4 72.9 9.5 10.8 12.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 18.1 18.5 18.9 2.6 77.9 75.2 15.0 17.0 17.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 18.0 18.4 18.6 2.6 79.6 76.8 14.3 16.4 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 17.9 18.4 19.0 2.6 80.0 76.6 14.9 16.3 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 17.8 18.6 18.0 2.7 79.5 75.9 14.4 16.5 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 18.0 18.4 17.6 2.6 78.0 75.6 15.5 16.5 17.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 21 79 100 17.9 18.4 15.3 2.6 80.5 74.6 15.0 16.4 17.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 18.1 18.7 18.2 2.6 79.3 76.4 15.0 16.5 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 17.9 18.5 16.7 2.3 78.4 73.3 15.6 16.5 17.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 12.2 12.8 15.3 2.7 76.6 74.4 8.6 10.4 12.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 18.3 18.9 18.8 2.6 80.1 76.1 14.5 16.3 17.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------