***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.04.2016.-10.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 20.2 24.1 21.1 6.1 96.9 95.8 16.1 16.8 17.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 19.7 24.5 21.1 6.1 98.2 96.5 15.9 17.2 18.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 20.2 24.4 21.6 6.6 96.8 96.5 16.5 17.3 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 2 98 100 13.0 16.9 17.5 5.4 93.9 92.4 9.1 11.1 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 21.7 25.5 20.0 6.5 96.1 95.8 16.6 17.9 19.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 19.5 23.8 17.8 6.5 95.6 95.6 15.4 17.1 18.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 19.1 24.6 21.0 6.1 98.4 96.8 16.1 17.0 18.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 7.4 12.2 18.0 6.6 97.0 96.0 4.4 6.2 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 20.6 24.9 20.9 6.6 96.3 96.2 16.2 17.1 18.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 1 99 100 20.6 24.9 19.2 6.7 96.1 95.6 16.3 17.0 19.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 21.0 25.4 20.4 6.6 96.0 95.8 16.5 17.7 19.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 20.0 23.8 18.8 6.5 97.5 96.8 15.5 16.6 19.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 20.5 24.9 19.7 6.6 96.6 96.8 16.6 18.0 19.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 19.9 24.1 20.8 6.7 97.2 96.3 16.1 17.3 19.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 4 96 100 20.3 23.1 19.3 4.6 94.0 91.0 16.7 17.6 19.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 21.3 25.4 19.6 6.5 96.4 96.4 17.0 18.1 20.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 18.2 23.6 20.7 6.1 98.3 96.9 15.4 16.1 17.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 20.4 24.0 18.5 6.9 96.4 95.8 16.0 16.6 18.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 19.9 24.3 21.2 6.2 98.2 96.6 16.2 17.2 18.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 15.0 18.2 16.1 6.6 97.7 96.5 10.5 11.6 13.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 20.7 24.6 21.8 6.7 96.5 96.4 16.6 17.4 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 19.5 24.2 20.8 6.1 98.2 96.8 15.9 16.7 18.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 19.9 24.6 21.4 6.5 97.8 96.9 15.6 17.5 19.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 19.7 24.3 20.8 6.9 96.5 96.2 16.4 17.0 18.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 20.3 24.7 20.1 6.1 96.2 95.1 16.4 17.3 18.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 19.4 23.4 17.3 6.1 96.4 96.3 15.4 17.4 18.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 20.0 24.7 20.7 6.2 97.1 96.1 16.5 17.4 18.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 21.1 24.3 18.4 5.2 94.4 92.0 17.2 18.4 19.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 14.8 19.0 17.8 6.9 97.5 96.3 10.6 11.8 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 19.6 24.6 21.2 6.2 98.2 96.7 16.3 17.0 18.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------