***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.04.2016.-01.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 8.2 8.6 9.5 2.1 89.8 86.5 6.3 7.2 7.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 9 91 100 7.7 8.7 9.0 1.9 92.2 85.9 5.7 6.8 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 10 90 100 9.6 10.5 9.5 2.0 90.9 86.5 8.0 8.6 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 12 88 100 4.2 5.0 6.6 1.8 89.4 84.8 2.5 2.9 3.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 10 90 100 6.6 7.2 7.3 1.9 89.1 85.8 4.9 5.3 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 7 93 100 5.7 6.1 4.9 2.0 92.2 87.4 3.9 4.2 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 10 90 100 8.2 8.4 9.0 1.9 91.3 86.1 6.0 6.5 7.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 6 94 100 0.2 0.8 5.0 2.0 90.3 87.9 -1.4 -0.8 -0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 10 90 100 7.3 7.8 7.4 1.8 91.9 86.1 5.8 6.1 6.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 8 92 100 7.2 7.8 5.8 1.9 89.7 86.6 5.8 6.0 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 9 91 100 7.0 7.6 6.6 1.8 90.1 86.3 5.6 5.9 6.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 7 93 100 5.7 6.3 5.8 1.9 91.4 87.5 3.9 4.6 5.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 11 89 100 6.9 7.3 5.3 1.7 89.1 84.9 4.8 5.3 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 10 90 100 7.7 8.2 7.3 1.8 91.5 86.1 6.4 6.8 7.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 7.7 8.2 7.7 1.6 89.3 84.3 6.4 6.8 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 11 89 100 7.7 8.3 6.0 1.8 89.7 85.8 6.0 6.3 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 12 88 100 7.8 8.5 8.8 1.8 89.5 84.5 6.4 6.8 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 9 91 100 5.0 5.9 5.5 2.0 91.0 87.5 3.6 4.1 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 10 90 100 7.8 8.4 8.9 1.9 93.3 86.1 5.9 6.3 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 5 95 100 2.6 3.3 3.5 2.2 93.7 89.3 1.2 1.3 2.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 10 90 100 7.4 8.0 8.8 1.9 89.9 85.5 5.7 6.2 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 13 87 100 7.1 7.6 8.6 1.7 91.5 84.1 5.8 6.2 6.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 9 91 100 7.2 8.2 8.8 1.9 94.1 86.9 5.6 6.1 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 11 89 100 7.0 7.7 7.3 1.8 90.8 86.5 5.6 6.1 6.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 8 92 100 7.4 8.5 8.4 2.1 88.8 86.2 5.8 6.8 7.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 5 95 100 6.4 7.0 4.9 1.9 92.3 87.2 4.8 5.2 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 8 92 100 8.6 9.4 9.0 2.1 89.2 86.2 6.0 7.3 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 6.1 6.5 6.9 1.7 88.4 83.8 4.7 4.9 5.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 8 92 100 4.5 5.0 4.8 2.1 93.0 88.2 2.8 3.3 4.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 9 91 100 8.3 8.8 9.2 2.0 92.5 86.7 5.8 7.2 7.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------