***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.04.2016.-17.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 9 91 100 8.2 8.9 9.5 2.9 84.6 83.1 5.4 7.0 7.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 8 92 100 7.7 8.6 8.9 2.6 85.3 83.1 4.4 5.7 6.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 9 91 100 9.5 9.9 9.4 2.7 86.1 83.2 6.5 8.1 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 14 86 100 3.7 4.4 6.4 2.5 85.3 81.0 0.8 2.2 2.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 18 82 100 7.1 7.8 7.2 2.5 83.9 80.3 3.3 5.7 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 16 84 100 5.9 6.5 4.6 2.5 84.2 81.8 3.2 4.6 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 7 93 100 7.9 8.3 8.9 2.7 85.4 83.0 4.6 6.0 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 16 84 100 0.2 0.7 4.6 2.5 85.8 81.6 -2.4 -1.0 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 7.4 8.2 7.2 2.4 85.7 81.1 4.2 6.1 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 18 82 100 7.7 8.3 5.6 2.5 85.7 81.2 4.3 6.5 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 7.1 7.8 6.5 2.4 84.1 80.5 4.0 6.1 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 15 85 100 5.9 6.2 5.5 2.4 84.1 81.0 3.3 5.0 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 16 84 100 6.8 7.2 5.4 2.4 83.5 81.0 4.2 5.7 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 14 86 100 7.5 8.6 7.1 2.4 87.5 82.1 4.4 6.3 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 14 86 100 8.0 8.3 7.7 2.4 86.8 82.8 5.4 6.5 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 7.8 8.1 5.9 2.4 83.8 80.4 4.6 6.8 7.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 8 92 100 7.5 8.0 8.6 2.5 85.5 82.9 5.3 6.2 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 14 86 100 5.3 6.2 5.2 2.5 85.6 81.5 2.5 4.1 5.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 10 90 100 7.4 8.4 8.8 2.6 86.6 83.3 4.8 5.8 6.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 14 86 100 3.1 3.6 3.2 2.7 85.9 82.8 0.0 1.5 2.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 13 87 100 7.9 8.6 8.8 2.6 85.9 82.4 4.2 6.4 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 7 93 100 6.9 7.3 8.6 2.5 85.9 83.7 4.4 5.7 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 14 86 100 7.3 7.9 8.6 2.5 87.1 83.6 4.7 5.6 6.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 15 85 100 7.0 7.6 7.1 2.4 87.7 82.2 4.5 5.9 6.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 10 90 100 7.7 8.4 8.5 2.9 84.8 82.2 4.4 6.4 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 11 89 100 6.7 7.0 4.8 2.5 81.2 81.0 4.4 5.5 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 9 91 100 8.7 9.2 9.1 3.0 85.2 82.9 4.5 5.5 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 6.4 7.0 6.7 2.4 85.0 81.2 3.6 5.3 5.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 13 87 100 4.2 4.6 4.4 2.6 86.1 82.2 1.3 2.8 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 8 92 100 7.8 9.1 9.1 2.7 85.9 83.3 4.5 6.0 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------