***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.04.2016.-10.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 7.9 11.5 11.1 5.5 100.0 99.6 5.5 6.0 6.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 7.1 10.6 10.2 4.9 100.0 99.5 4.6 5.9 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 9.5 14.3 10.9 5.1 99.7 99.5 7.2 8.1 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 4.1 7.8 7.7 4.7 99.2 98.0 1.7 2.1 3.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 6.3 11.0 9.0 4.9 99.2 98.8 3.6 4.6 5.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 5.0 7.5 6.0 4.9 99.9 99.5 2.6 4.0 4.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 7.5 10.7 10.3 5.0 100.0 99.4 5.2 5.9 6.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 0.7 4.6 6.3 4.9 100.0 99.9 -2.4 -1.8 -0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 7.2 9.3 8.8 4.6 99.9 99.7 4.7 5.2 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 7.3 9.6 7.1 4.7 99.8 99.7 4.5 5.3 6.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 7.0 9.2 8.1 4.5 99.9 99.7 4.2 5.4 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 5.8 8.8 7.3 4.9 99.8 99.5 2.6 3.6 4.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 6.2 8.9 6.8 4.2 99.9 99.3 3.8 4.9 5.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 7.6 9.7 8.6 4.6 99.5 99.1 5.5 6.0 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 7.6 9.4 8.3 3.8 97.1 96.3 5.8 6.3 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 7.4 12.0 7.5 4.5 99.6 99.1 5.3 5.7 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 7.7 9.4 9.9 4.7 98.9 98.5 5.6 5.8 6.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 4.7 5.5 7.0 5.0 99.9 99.5 2.1 3.4 4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 6.7 10.3 10.1 4.8 99.8 99.6 4.9 5.5 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 2.7 5.7 5.5 5.5 100.0 100.0 -0.5 0.5 1.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 7.4 11.0 10.2 4.8 99.5 99.2 4.9 5.4 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 6.2 8.5 9.7 4.4 98.0 98.2 4.8 5.3 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 6.6 9.1 10.0 4.9 100.0 99.9 4.2 5.4 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 7.0 8.8 8.7 4.6 99.9 99.5 4.3 5.8 6.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 7.1 14.0 10.4 5.5 100.0 99.3 4.7 5.9 6.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 5.8 7.8 6.4 4.8 99.6 99.3 3.7 4.4 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 8.7 16.2 10.8 5.5 99.5 99.0 5.2 6.4 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 6.4 8.1 7.8 4.2 96.8 96.0 2.7 4.0 5.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 4.5 8.7 6.2 5.1 100.0 99.8 2.0 2.8 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 7.4 12.3 10.6 5.1 100.0 99.7 5.1 6.2 6.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------