***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.04.2017.-30.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 36.3 40.6 51.7 85.8 43.2 40.6 36.1 48.7 62.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 27.2 33.3 43.5 83.0 40.0 40.1 31.0 39.9 47.7 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 40.5 50.2 50.2 86.0 43.3 41.2 39.3 54.2 58.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 49.2 62.9 52.1 78.1 36.1 35.8 60.5 68.9 76.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 38.9 43.6 52.4 80.4 36.8 36.6 42.1 52.0 67.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 38.1 40.4 60.9 85.2 38.9 38.9 37.6 49.5 61.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 25.6 27.2 43.1 82.0 39.8 39.9 25.6 36.1 44.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 69.3 78.9 64.1 91.5 46.1 44.4 65.2 79.6 95.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 37.5 43.5 53.3 80.8 38.0 37.5 38.7 49.8 59.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 44.0 50.6 63.2 86.4 42.0 41.0 42.1 59.9 68.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 37.7 43.3 51.8 80.8 35.7 36.9 39.1 49.2 63.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 39.8 48.3 54.6 87.0 41.5 41.1 40.4 50.4 60.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 41.4 47.4 58.2 83.7 35.5 37.3 46.0 52.0 58.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 49.6 58.1 68.3 90.8 44.8 45.7 51.6 59.5 67.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 34.6 46.0 47.2 77.5 40.7 37.7 38.7 49.8 55.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 36.1 49.5 52.9 81.0 35.6 36.4 49.1 55.5 65.4 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 31.1 35.5 41.7 80.6 40.5 40.0 32.5 39.0 42.1 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 39.6 51.8 70.8 91.1 44.8 44.5 45.2 52.1 62.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 30.7 39.7 45.5 84.8 41.9 40.9 32.3 41.7 51.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 54.1 49.1 79.5 97.5 50.7 49.3 40.1 48.8 63.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 35.7 40.2 50.8 81.1 38.3 37.9 39.2 44.2 54.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 30.5 39.6 45.1 84.0 40.1 41.3 36.9 43.3 48.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 32.6 38.7 49.2 86.7 44.4 42.5 36.1 42.3 52.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 41.4 50.1 62.2 88.7 43.8 43.0 47.2 52.9 65.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 37.2 45.9 56.4 81.4 38.8 37.5 41.0 54.5 63.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 38.1 43.8 58.7 89.6 42.3 42.3 39.7 46.6 55.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 31.5 45.1 55.0 85.0 42.3 40.1 42.0 47.9 58.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 33.6 38.4 49.8 77.7 36.6 36.2 36.3 49.5 63.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 55.7 69.9 75.5 95.2 49.5 47.6 66.8 69.9 81.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 26.2 34.0 46.1 85.9 42.3 41.6 27.4 37.8 51.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------