***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.04.2017.-30.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 4.2 7.7 15.2 98.0 62.2 49.2 4.2 6.6 8.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 2.0 5.5 12.9 94.9 60.8 48.2 1.1 3.8 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 4.5 10.8 14.8 100.4 60.8 49.6 2.8 9.8 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 6.2 12.3 15.3 88.0 54.5 46.6 3.5 10.7 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 3.3 7.3 14.6 87.9 57.4 46.7 2.8 6.4 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 11.4 8.9 17.3 88.5 50.1 45.5 3.6 8.9 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 2.1 6.0 12.3 88.7 58.5 46.0 1.6 3.8 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 20.8 19.3 17.7 96.1 54.3 47.6 8.9 17.9 24.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 4.1 8.7 14.2 82.6 52.3 44.5 3.0 8.3 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.9 9.1 17.1 88.0 51.7 45.5 7.1 8.9 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.3 6.6 13.9 86.4 54.5 45.7 3.3 5.5 8.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 5.7 11.3 14.7 90.5 51.9 46.4 4.0 10.6 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 12.4 10.4 16.1 87.9 50.6 45.8 1.8 10.4 16.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 5.3 14.8 21.0 105.1 61.5 52.5 7.4 9.8 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 8.6 6.0 14.3 87.4 54.3 47.0 2.0 4.7 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 10.4 7.8 14.4 85.9 52.9 45.5 3.0 7.6 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 2.2 5.8 12.3 90.3 58.1 47.4 2.2 3.9 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 6.0 12.2 19.7 93.6 55.5 47.7 7.0 11.6 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 2.7 8.1 13.6 99.0 61.4 49.4 2.5 5.4 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 11.2 11.5 21.5 99.8 56.0 48.8 7.2 9.8 12.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 3.6 8.3 14.1 88.0 55.8 46.8 2.1 7.5 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 2.1 6.2 13.1 91.2 57.4 48.2 1.9 4.3 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 3.4 9.3 14.8 102.1 61.1 50.2 3.1 8.1 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 4.3 11.9 18.1 98.8 59.4 49.7 3.7 8.1 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 3.4 6.1 16.3 90.3 55.8 47.9 3.4 5.6 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 2.4 6.0 15.1 89.9 52.7 46.9 3.5 4.9 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 4.1 7.4 15.9 93.7 59.2 48.3 3.3 7.0 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.8 5.7 14.5 85.9 53.4 45.8 2.3 5.3 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 17.5 15.9 20.8 98.9 56.6 49.1 8.7 13.6 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 3.0 10.0 13.7 99.0 62.6 48.9 2.3 5.7 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------