***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.04.2017.-23.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 4.7 15.7 13.7 94.9 60.4 45.0 7.0 9.9 20.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.6 9.9 12.4 101.2 58.0 48.4 5.6 8.4 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 5.2 11.8 13.2 96.0 60.7 46.1 5.5 8.9 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 9.4 14.6 13.6 87.4 55.7 45.9 11.8 13.1 19.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 5.8 11.3 12.6 84.3 54.9 45.5 7.3 10.0 17.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 5.9 8.7 14.6 85.2 47.9 42.9 7.4 9.5 16.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 5.3 10.4 13.0 107.0 62.1 50.1 4.6 8.6 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 23.1 21.6 14.7 91.7 53.8 48.4 16.6 20.2 25.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 6.5 15.1 13.5 86.2 57.6 46.5 8.3 12.8 18.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 16.9 14.8 14.8 86.9 53.5 46.9 8.0 14.0 20.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 6.4 11.5 12.1 86.1 52.6 46.0 8.5 11.4 19.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 8.6 14.6 13.2 93.7 55.3 47.9 9.6 13.4 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 9.8 18.5 14.5 90.5 52.2 45.3 9.6 17.7 21.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 5.7 17.7 17.0 96.5 58.2 47.2 6.9 11.7 27.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 5.7 11.5 13.9 95.5 59.4 47.3 6.7 8.9 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 8.1 14.6 13.2 89.4 53.3 45.2 7.5 14.5 18.8 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 4.9 11.6 12.2 102.1 62.1 49.6 4.5 10.5 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 15.0 13.7 16.1 89.4 54.0 47.9 7.3 12.3 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 5.9 11.5 12.4 98.3 58.3 47.3 4.5 10.2 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 15.3 14.4 18.8 99.6 58.0 52.0 8.6 12.6 19.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 6.5 14.8 12.8 87.2 58.5 45.4 5.7 11.5 19.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 5.4 11.9 13.1 104.7 61.7 49.2 3.8 11.0 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 4.5 11.5 13.0 98.7 59.8 46.9 3.1 8.6 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 8.1 18.3 15.2 93.1 57.5 47.1 7.9 15.6 20.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 4.1 11.4 14.3 86.9 57.4 44.4 6.5 8.4 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 6.1 13.6 14.7 96.6 55.0 46.6 4.3 11.9 18.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 5.4 13.1 14.3 93.3 58.6 44.9 6.6 11.4 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 4.9 9.7 13.2 88.0 55.0 45.3 4.3 8.4 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 21.3 21.3 17.8 96.7 57.5 50.7 12.7 18.3 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 4.4 11.7 13.2 105.8 60.1 48.7 4.2 9.0 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------