***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.04.2017.-16.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 6.5 13.4 14.0 91.2 54.9 46.9 5.6 13.0 16.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 11.2 10.5 11.9 88.0 56.4 47.2 4.7 9.2 15.1 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 6.7 14.1 13.0 85.2 53.6 45.6 6.1 12.2 19.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 22.4 21.1 12.8 77.2 53.0 44.5 14.8 20.1 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 10.0 14.7 12.7 73.6 48.0 41.3 10.4 15.1 18.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 9.5 15.5 13.6 76.5 48.7 40.6 8.8 15.6 23.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 11.4 13.0 11.7 87.3 55.6 46.2 3.8 10.3 14.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 19.3 24.2 13.4 75.9 48.9 41.8 17.9 25.6 30.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 7.3 13.1 13.3 76.7 49.2 41.8 6.9 13.1 18.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 10.3 14.7 14.0 76.3 48.3 41.8 12.0 15.3 20.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 17.3 14.4 13.4 75.4 47.4 41.8 11.0 14.6 17.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 8.7 13.8 12.1 73.1 50.0 41.6 10.2 13.9 19.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 9.5 16.3 13.1 73.1 49.7 41.5 12.1 16.4 24.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 11.0 20.4 15.4 79.4 50.8 43.2 14.3 20.3 23.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 16.5 18.1 11.5 77.1 55.7 44.4 7.6 14.1 20.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 8.3 15.2 12.8 75.6 52.0 42.4 9.5 14.7 18.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.6 8.6 11.4 86.4 54.3 45.7 4.3 7.1 15.1 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 9.9 14.2 14.8 76.5 47.1 40.2 11.1 14.4 15.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 15.0 13.4 12.2 87.8 57.1 47.4 7.2 12.3 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 9.1 15.4 15.6 75.0 47.0 39.6 9.3 15.6 19.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 7.2 12.2 13.0 79.0 51.2 42.6 7.5 12.0 17.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 13.6 12.3 12.6 91.3 58.0 47.6 5.2 11.1 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 7.3 16.8 12.7 85.4 55.3 46.2 8.5 15.0 19.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 7.1 12.8 14.3 78.1 48.1 41.5 9.2 13.6 21.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 7.4 16.2 15.2 86.1 54.4 44.6 7.5 13.9 21.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 9.0 14.4 13.3 77.1 52.6 41.0 10.4 14.1 18.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 7.2 16.6 15.1 91.6 54.8 46.3 7.5 15.4 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 8.5 15.8 11.2 71.5 51.6 42.3 7.4 14.4 21.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 15.6 22.6 16.2 79.2 48.4 41.2 14.3 23.0 24.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 5.8 12.0 12.1 87.8 55.9 47.0 5.2 10.9 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------