***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.04.2017.-09.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 5.5 1.7 8.8 58.6 40.5 39.8 1.6 3.1 9.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.9 2.5 6.4 48.8 36.4 35.0 2.1 4.7 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 7.4 5.1 9.2 62.9 44.0 41.8 2.5 5.9 10.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 12.5 7.1 10.4 60.4 43.0 40.7 4.3 9.6 17.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 8.4 4.8 12.5 76.3 46.8 45.7 2.5 5.7 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 6.3 6.2 15.4 90.3 57.7 52.2 2.2 4.8 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 1.8 0.9 6.2 46.5 35.6 35.0 0.7 4.0 7.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 16.6 16.0 18.4 101.9 60.7 56.0 6.2 15.1 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 8.2 5.3 12.4 78.2 45.5 46.2 4.1 6.8 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 9.2 11.1 17.3 94.2 55.1 52.5 3.9 8.0 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 8.9 7.1 12.4 75.6 49.7 46.3 2.0 7.2 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 11.0 9.8 14.5 91.7 56.4 52.2 1.1 9.1 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 7.5 7.1 14.7 84.0 54.9 49.3 2.6 6.1 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 10.7 9.8 14.8 81.7 51.0 47.2 5.7 9.6 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 5.4 4.6 7.4 49.8 45.1 40.7 0.5 4.8 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 7.6 6.0 12.4 74.2 49.3 45.8 2.5 6.1 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 2.4 2.2 5.8 44.7 37.0 34.1 2.1 4.0 5.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 8.1 8.4 20.1 104.0 58.8 55.8 2.9 6.3 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 6.5 3.8 7.2 54.1 39.3 37.1 3.6 4.6 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 9.3 11.5 23.6 114.5 64.6 61.0 3.5 8.4 12.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 7.4 4.6 10.9 70.4 43.5 43.6 1.8 5.6 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 2.7 3.1 6.4 48.6 38.6 35.0 2.5 4.4 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.3 3.6 8.6 60.8 42.1 40.1 2.4 5.1 8.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 7.7 6.7 14.6 85.3 51.5 48.8 3.2 6.4 10.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 8.0 5.1 10.6 61.9 40.8 40.7 3.4 6.1 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 8.2 10.9 15.7 96.1 59.7 55.2 1.5 7.3 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 6.1 2.6 9.7 60.9 40.3 40.4 1.9 4.0 9.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 6.9 4.9 10.9 65.3 48.4 44.3 2.8 5.4 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 13.8 15.3 20.7 105.6 60.0 57.0 7.0 11.8 17.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.3 2.9 7.1 52.3 37.2 36.3 2.6 4.3 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------